[NFL] 2008 Week 14

[Mippo]

It's a pretty important game for Miami too. Miami would've been in a good position to make the playoffs if they had beaten New England but they recovered from that loss with the Jets / Pats loss last week so if the Dolphins win out, they win the division and the Patriots can't do anything about it because the Patriots would lose on the tie-breaker even if they won out as well. If the Dolphins beat the Jets in the last game of the season, they would also hold the tie-breaker over the Jets. Losing to Buffalo would basically end their chances because they would then lose the tie-breaker to the Jets which would make it basically impossible for them to overcome falling 2 games back with 3 games remaining. The wild card spot is looking less likely because of the Colts remaining schedule and how well Baltimore is playing plus the fact that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker over Miami due to beating them earlier in the year.

This means the best chance for Miami to make the playoffs is by winning the division which they HAVE to beat Buffalo in order to do. It's really a do or die game for Miami's season whereas Buffalo is basically already eliminated. If Miami beats Buffalo more likely then not they play the Jets for the division crown the last game of the season. If the Dolphins lose to Buffalo, their chances of making the playoffs drops close to 0. With Buffalo basically eliminated already and losing 5 of the last 6 games, the safer bet is Miami because of a neutral field and the fact that they have more to play for but they play the games for a reason......... anything can happen. I also agree that the Texans / Packers is closer then people think but I'm still sticking with the home team in that one.

If the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots all end up 11-5 the Dolphins would win the division. All 3 teams would finish 4-2 within the division so the tie-breaker moves to common games where the Jets get eliminated because of their common game losses to Oakland, Denver, and San Diego (Miami and New England both only have 1 loss among common games as Miami lost to Arizona and New England lost to San Diego). The Tie-breaker would then revert to conference record where Miami only has 4 losses and the Patriots have 5.

[findar]

SUN, DEC 7
Jaguars
Vikings
Packers
Colts
Falcons
Giants
Titans
Dolphins
Broncos
Jets
Patriots
Cardinals
Cowboys
Ravens

MON, DEC 8
Panthers



uhg. first week i missed a pick :/

[Antoine]

11-5

[Urlithani]

12-4. I was pissed all day yesterday thinking I didn't make all the right picks.

[Braen]

12-4 as well.

[Mithandriel]

Originally Posted by Braen

12-4 as well.

I have you at 11-5 - missing on Texans, Saints, Eagles, 49ers and Steelers.

[Mithandriel]

Totals are based on 16 games. Any pick not made prior to the start of the game is counted as an incorrect pick.

Overall, we picked at slightly over 70% as a group. 11-5 was a very common total.

Top dogs for the week at 13-3 are:
bigdaw
Ejukated
Fury
Mippo
Wombat

Cellar dweller was Findar at 9-7 (still a winning record).

Season Standings as of Week 14:
Mippo - 140-66 - 0.68
Wombat - 138-68 - 0.67
Pub - 138-68 - 0.67

Weekly Totals
Mippo - 13-3 - 0.929 - 140-66 - 0.68
Wombat - 13-3 - 0.929 - 138-68 - 0.67
Ejukated - 13-3 - 0.929 - 126-80 - 0.612
bigdaw - 13-3 - 0.929 - 125-81 - 0.607
Fury - 13-3 - 0.929 - 124-82 - 0.602
Pub - 12-4 - 0.857 - 138-68 - 0.67
Scorp - 12-4 - 0.857 - 136-70 - 0.66
Twobit-Whore - 12-4 - 0.857 - 135-71 - 0.655
Nebuchadnezzar - 12-4 - 0.857 - 132-74 - 0.641
Urlithani - 12-4 - 0.857 - 131-75 - 0.636
Antoine - 11-5 - 0.786 - 136-70 - 0.66
Mithandriel - 11-5 - 0.786 - 133-73 - 0.646
mexpak - 11-5 - 0.786 - 132-74 - 0.641
Jooka - 11-5 - 0.786 - 130-76 - 0.631
Gilgamel - 11-5 - 0.786 - 129-77 - 0.626
Ham n Cheese - 11-5 - 0.786 - 75-46 - 0.62
Braen - 11-5 - 0.786 - 126-80 - 0.612
Roosta - 11-5 - 0.786 - 67-48 - 0.583
Moontayle - 11-5 - 0.786 - 114-92 - 0.553
Lawso002 - 10-6 - 0.714 - 131-75 - 0.636
Psu199 - 10-6 - 0.714 - 131-75 - 0.636
Sunder - 10-6 - 0.714 - 131-75 - 0.636
xxmalisxx - 10-6 - 0.714 - 10-6 - 0.625 (New This Week)
Tea on Tuesday - 10-6 - 0.714 - 127-79 - 0.617
ValkyrieIsAboutToDie - 10-5 - 0.714 - 112-77 - 0.593
Findar - 9-7 - 0.643 - 127-79 - 0.617


I'm not listing those that did not pick anymore. If you start back up again, you will be added back and your totals will pick up from the last time you picked.

[Braen]

You are right.. gave the Jets too much credit... Doh!

[Mippo]

As long as the Jets continue their losing ways when they play Miami in week 17, it's all good. I wanted the Patriots to lose too but oh well. I have a feeling Arizona will beat them in week 16.

[Mithandriel]

Originally Posted by Mippo

As long as the Jets continue their losing ways when they play Miami in week 17, it's all good. I wanted the Patriots to lose too but oh well. I have a feeling Arizona will beat them in week 16.

You'll have to assume that will happen. 49ers are a much different team than earlier in the season (and the Jets do not do well on the West Coast) and the Broncos are playing much better ball after a low point in their season. Remember, the Jets lost to the Raiders and came back to play some very strong ball and I'd say the Broncos did the same.

Granted the Jets are not the same team that beat the Titans three weeks ago but the same way nobody should have crowned them the heir apparent, nobody should write them off either.

I'm chalking up the last two weeks as a period of poor play against two somewhat resurgent teams (one of which was in pretty bad weather conditions).

Buffalo will be a test. If they lose or barely win, that to me would be a bigger indication that there is something very wrong. Teams have lulls and periods where they play badly.

The same way nobody should have proclaimed the Jets as East champs and Super Bowl contenders after two games is the same way nobody should be crowning the 'Phins. There is a lot of football left. Three weeks is an eternity and we know the Jets always play Miami tought especially at home.

The only thing the Dolphins really have on their side is a better story (major win turn around, rookie coach. Comeback quarterback facing his old team, etc.)

[Mippo]

The problem is the bad play really needs to stop right now. If the Jets lose to Buffalo, they will lose the tie-breaker advantage over New England. What that means is that even if the Jets recover and beat Miami in week 17, they will likely lose the division to the Patriots.

Basically, if the Jets lose to Buffalo, they are done for the season. That's how Miami was in their game this week. If Miami had lost to Buffalo, their season would have been over not because of the loss, but because it would have cost them their tie-breakers which are the only reason the Jets / Dolphins have the advantage in the division.

If Bills defeat Jets - Jets are out
If Bills defeat Patriots - Patriots are out
If Jets defeat Dolphins - Dolphins are out

There are some really crazy scenarios that get around this, but for all intents and purposes, if the Jets lose to Buffalo they are done because even if they recover and beat Miami, they would lose the tie-breaker to New England, even if New England lost to Arizona they would still win the division. Jets beating Miami after losing to Buffalo would just screw the Dolphins, but it wouldn't get the Jets into the playoffs.

That's why I'm picking the Jets next week. It's a do or die game. If they lose, they are out of the playoffs.

[Mithandriel]

My concern is the defense. The secondary was always suspect but they were lights out against the run and teams having to double team Jenkins was creating mismatches on the line and allowing the Jets to get to the quarterback. They have barely been putting any pressure on the quaterback in their last two losses and their run defense is pourous.

I can only assume Jenkins is run down or has some minor nagging injures that is not allowing him to play to the same standard he set earlier in the season.

I'm not so much worried about the offense. Favre is Favre and will get the points on the board and they need to get the ball in to Jones hands early and often then utilize Washington for what he is good at.

Jones averaging 5.6 yards/carry against the 49ers and only having 10 touches is crazy. They also need to stop the stupud gimmick plays. It fucked them two weeks in a row.

I agree. A loss to Buffalo barring some major breakdown by the Pats essentially ends any playoff chance for the Jets.