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| | #61 (permalink) |
| Registered User Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 709
| Woo no edit rickshaw. Replied before I followed link. Apparently the "local" gas station carries those. I'm so behind the times. Can't believe gas station wasn't my first destination when I wanted a prepaid debit card. Would you like a neg or a pos good sir? |
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| | #62 (permalink) | |
| Banned Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Florida
Posts: 365
| Quote:
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| | #63 (permalink) | |
| I'm dangerous! Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Atlanta
Posts: 1,278
| Quote:
-EV
__________________ There are 10 types of people in the world: those who understand binary and those that don't. | |
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| | #64 (permalink) |
| Registered User Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 148
+24 Internets | Lumie, I am so disappointed in you. I can't believe someone as smart as you is falling for it. The reptilian space angels run the on-line gambling industry (most of the real word gambling as well.) They are clearly letting you win to distract you from your important work with cancer and informing the world of their true plans. |
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| | #65 (permalink) | ||
| I regret nothing! Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posts: 275
| Quote:
You say that the villain limped in preflop, but you also say you were in middle position and the initial raise came from someone 4 seats in front of you. Assuming you were in middle position, 4 seats in front of you would imply that the initial raise came from the UTG player, so no one could have limped in. Calling a raise is not a limp in. So lets assume for the sake of argument that UTG did limp in and UTG+1 raised to 2xBB. So right now the pot is at 9 units (SB, BB, limp, 2xBB). You raised to 6xBB making the pot 21 units. I am going to assume everyone folded back to the UTG seat. UTG needed another 5xBB to make the call (risking 10 units since he limped in initially to win 21 units). UTG+1 also called (risking 8 units to win 31 units). This was a pretty terrible call for UTG to make with 73o. It was not that bad of a call for the UTG+1 (initial raiser) to make assuming he had something decent. Even though his initial raise amount was terrible (2xBB with a limper and most of the table left to act? no thanks.) I would put him on something like TT+, QJs+, AJo+. I disagree with Myst's interpretation of the hand. I do not think there were as many callers as he made it out to be, but that still does not justify this: Quote:
Did he see every flop no matter what? Also the probability of someone with pockets making a set is 11.8%, so if he put you on pockets and makes his two pair or his set, he is still going to be behind 11.8% of the time. Terrible call that is very very rarely justified. Lets run the numbers through pokerstove and see what we get. Remember that these numbers only apply if the hand makes it all the way to a showdown... Code: 11,152,454,544 games 19.530 secs 571,042,219 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.247% 13.14% 00.11% 1465457328 11959404.00 { 73o }
Hand 1: 23.391% 22.85% 00.54% 2548003860 60640944.00 { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 63.362% 62.82% 00.54% 7005752064 60640944.00 { KK } Code:
123,285,888 games 0.005 secs 24,657,177,600 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.857% 13.65% 00.20% 16831656 252630.00 { 73o }
Hand 1: 86.143% 85.94% 00.20% 105948972 252630.00 { KK } Also, to answer your question, yes there are a ton of bad players online. Don't be one of them. TL;DR version: Post the actual hand history.
__________________ In vino veritas. | ||
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| | #66 (permalink) |
| Really iTunes? Free downloads while supplies last? Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: pirate kansas
Posts: 2,559
| jesus fucking christ. I specifically said it was wrong, and I would not have done it, but if the action went down in the way myst interpreted it, it wasn't AS BAD as you would originally think. There was two ways to understand the action Burke described, on one extreme end, the person could be getting something like 12-1 JUST TO SEE THE FLOP. If he hits 'big' (I just said 2 pair as the baseline for what he needs to hit to think about staying in post flop, figuring anything higher would be obviously better), he's got implied odds of doubling/tripling up as the other big hands are less likely to fold, especially at low level stakes like this where people see AK to the river without hitting anything. I'm not saying this line of thinking is correct, just explaining the donk mentality in these lower stake tournies. Again, no, it's not +ev, I fucking know that. I would never play it and specifically said that. But, at least at the the lower levels I've been building up through, you have to overbet to get rid of people like that or they use fuzzy math and/or their 'gut' to justify calling with that crap. If the pot odds are 2-1 and they are a 3-1 dog, they fucking call. Yea, you win those hands most of the time, but when 20% of the field in a 90 person SNG plays like that, one of them gets lucky and busts you before you make the money. A tight image is higher ev then a loose image through most phases of most types of tournaments. |
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| | #67 (permalink) |
| Really iTunes? Free downloads while supplies last? Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: pirate kansas
Posts: 2,559
| Before someone jumps on the number, I threw out 12-1 as an exaggeration. I think the more likely situation is he was getting maybe 3-1 or 4-1 at most, but if you took the description in a certain way, it gets much higher. The scenario I was thinking of: If the blinds are 50/100, initial raiser is UTG and raises to 200, and villain with 73o was utg+1 and called (which is already horrible, but whatever), then had 4 callers (this seems unlikely, but hard to tell by his description), then 600 by burke (pot would be 1950 now) with 2 callers after (2750), and then villain. He called 400 more into a 2750 pot. So, just under 6-1 to make the call, with implied odds of however much he's got in front of him times the number of players in the hand he puts on a big hand (i.e. Burke and initial raiser) is what I was getting at. Again, stupid, not a good move at any point, just illustrating the line of thinking the donks use to justify bad moves after they go skim a poker book or something. |
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| | #68 (permalink) |
| I'm dangerous! Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Atlanta
Posts: 1,278
| Just seems like you are overanalyzing a bad player who has no idea what pot odds are, let alone implied odds. He could have been paying to see every flop. In which case, good luck putting him on a hand. If he tends to check/fold when he misses the flop, then his shove should have been a big indicator to get out of the way.
__________________ There are 10 types of people in the world: those who understand binary and those that don't. |
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| | #69 (permalink) |
| Really iTunes? Free downloads while supplies last? Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: pirate kansas
Posts: 2,559
| Well, I don't honestly think half what I wrote went through his head. More likely, if it was early on a tournament, he just saw the bet being small relative to his stack. The donks rarely look at actual bets relative to the pot, but rather relative to their stack. I.e. in the turbo KO 90 person SNGs I play, blinds start at 15/30, and 3000 in starting chips. If you raise to 105 UTG, you get a bunch of callers anyway, even though that's a pretty strong bet in normal circumstances. My point was that you can't give them anywhere close to pot odds or they get tempted to call anyway. Or the bet needs to not take into consideration pot odds, but rather their stack. |
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