McCain vs. Obama

[Zora]

Originally Posted by renaissance

I hope Obama is a hell of a lot smarter than to pick Hagel as his veep... jesus. Do you realize the VP has a HUGE chance at becoming President after Obama's term is over? Do you want Chuck fucking Hagel as President of the United States?

Also if, heaven forbid, something should happen to Obama during his term.

Hagel is right on the war but isn't he very conservative on social issues?

[Zora]

Originally Posted by Mimirswell

False, only 14 Vice Presidents became President. Of those, 4 became president due to assassination (T. Roosevelt, A. Johnson, Arthur, L Johnson). Another 4 have come from deaths (Tyler, Fillmore, Truman, Coolidge). One came from resignation (Ford). The five who became presidents via election are John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, Richard Nixon, and George Bush.

So 5 out of 43 is only 11.6% chance. Now, McCain's VP does have a HUGE chance of becoming President should McCain have two terms but given Obama's youth and his released medical records.

Why remove assassination and even other causes of death or resignation from the equation? Stuff happens. It's not like any of it is impossible under an Obama administration. Some would say that an assassination attempt is more likely than usual.

[Mimirswell]

I had hoped to prevent exactly this type of response when I bolded the appropriate keyword when I quoted him. I am very aware of the possibility of assassination but I was addressing a common misunderstanding in American Politics (that VP's often successfully follow the coat-tails of the president into office).

[AngryGerbil]

...

[Kolle]

well...a VP has won the presidency twice in the last 20 years. i think overall something like 14(15) VPs did so. it's not a bad place to be.

if i was Obama i would rather have someone that wasn't interested in being president, tho.

[Mimirswell]

Originally Posted by Kolle

well...a VP has won the presidency twice in the last 20 years. i think overall something like 14(15) VPs did so. it's not a bad place to be.

Twice in the last 40 years. Richard Nixon became President in 1969 (39 years ago) and George Bush became President in 89 (19 years ago). Five VPs of Forty-six have become Presidents via election. There are certainly worse places to be but it's as much of a hindrance as it is a help (See Gore, Mondale, and Humphrey for more recent incidents of failed candidacies following terms as VP).

[Kolle]

twice in the last 20 years

[Mimirswell]

You probably want to make another thread for a derail of that size.

[Soriak]

Nice remarks from Obama: The Page - by Mark Halperin - TIME

“There are honest differences about how to move forward in Iraq, just like there were honest differences about whether or not we should go to war. John McCain was for the invasion of Iraq; I opposed it. John McCain wants to continue George Bush’s war in Iraq indefinitely; I want to end it. So there’s going to be a clear choice for the American people this November.

“But that’s not what John McCain’s been talking about the last few days. He’s been proposing a joint trip to Iraq that’s nothing more than a political stunt. He’s even been using it to raise a few dollars for his campaign. But it seems like Senator McCain’s a lot more interested in my travel plans than the facts, because yesterday – in his continued effort to put the best light on a failed policy – he stood up in Wisconsin and said, “We have drawn down to pre-surge levels” in Iraq.

“That’s not true, and anyone running for Commander-in-Chief should know better. As the saying goes, you’re entitled to your own view, but not your own facts. We’ve got around 150,000 troops in Iraq – 20,000 more than we had before the surge. We have plans to get down to around 140,000 later this summer – that’s still more troops than we had in Iraq before the surge. And today, Senator McCain refused to correct his mistake. Just like George Bush, when he was presented with the truth, he just dug in and refused to admit his mistake. His campaign said it amounts to “nitpicking.”

“Well I don’t think tens of thousands of American troops amounts to nitpicking. Tell that to the young men and women who are serving bravely and brilliantly under our flag. Tell that to the families who have seen their loved ones fight tour after tour after tour of duty in a war that should’ve never been authorized and never been waged.

“It’s time for a debate that’s based on the truth, and I can’t think of anything more important than how many Americans are in harm’s way. It’s time for a debate that’s based on how we’re going to end this war – not a debate that’s based on raising a few dollars for John McCain’s campaign.

“The American people have had enough spin. Just this week, we were reminded by President Bush’s own former spokesman of how it was deception – not straight talk – that misled the American people into war. It’s time to cut through the tough talk so that we can be straight with the American people about a war that’s cost us thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars without making us safer. It’s time to end the political game-playing so that we can finally end this war. That’s what I’ll do in this campaign. And that’s what I’ll do when I’m President of the United States.”

[Bristlebane]

The Obama Gaffe Machine - WSJ.com

"As smart and credentialed as he is, Sen. Obama is often an indifferent speaker without a teleprompter. He has large gaps in his knowledge base, and is just as likely to dig in and embrace a policy misstatement as abandon it. ABC reporter Jake Tapper calls him "a one-man gaffe machine."

[renaissance]

Originally Posted by Mimirswell

False, only 14 Vice Presidents became President. Of those, 4 became president due to assassination (T. Roosevelt, A. Johnson, Arthur, L Johnson). Another 4 have come from deaths (Tyler, Fillmore, Truman, Coolidge). One came from resignation (Ford). The five who became presidents via election are John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, Richard Nixon, and George Bush.

So 5 out of 43 is only 11.6% chance. Now, McCain's VP does have a HUGE chance of becoming President should McCain have two terms but given Obama's youth and his released medical records.

Saying that the VP doesn't have an enormous chance to become president in the next cycle is a ridiculous statement, disproven by your own calculation.

Do YOU have an 11% chance of becoming President? How about any Governor? Senator? Congressman? Private citizen? Yah... thought so. 11% is a huge probability in this kind of contest.

Also, that percentage is low. You say only 14 have become president. That is of total VPs. How many VPs have actually run for the position and not become president? I bet that represents a very different percentage, and would be a more accurate representation of the statistic, since, if you don'\t run, your chances of becoming president are close to 0%.

**Edit** By my count, only 24 VPs have even sought their party's nomination to become president (this doesn't include assassinations). So your number should be more like 21%. A 1 in 5 chance is a lottery I'd like to buy a ticket in any day of the week.

[Mimirswell]

Aside from the previously enumerated VPs who won, the following VPs failed to become President:

1. A. Burr
2. G. Clinton
3. J. Breckinridge
4. J. Sherman
5. C. Dawes
6. J. Garner
7. H. Wallace
8. A. Barkley
9. H. Humphrey
10. W. Mondale
11. A. Gore

So 11/16 (69%) who tried, failed. It should also be noted that of the 5 who succeeded, Adams and Jefferson would of become President regardless of the Vice Presidency and during their Vice Presidency, they were largely ignored by their respective Presidents due to the way the process worked at the time (2nd place for President was VP and thus your primary opposition). So really, you are looking at only 3 VPs who were successfully elected upon the Coattails of the previous administration (MvB from Andrew Jackson, Nixon from Eisenhower though not successively, failed the first time, and Bush from Reagan).

Also, your argument versus the random person on the street becoming President versus a Vice President is incredibly ignorant. Vice Presidents are not random people picked off the street and then due solely to their time as Vice Presidents, suddenly capable of launching a successful presidential campaign. They are life long politicians who the VP is simply one more step along the way and more often than not, a misstep if their true ambition is to be President.

[renaissance]

Originally Posted by Mimirswell

Aside from the previously enumerated VPs who won, the following VPs failed to become President:

1. A. Burr
2. G. Clinton
3. J. Breckinridge
4. J. Sherman
5. C. Dawes
6. J. Garner
7. H. Wallace
8. A. Barkley
9. H. Humphrey
10. W. Mondale
11. A. Gore

So 11/16 (69%) who tried, failed. It should also be noted that of the 5 who succeeded, Adams and Jefferson would of become President regardless of the Vice Presidency and during their Vice Presidency, they were largely ignored by their respective Presidents due to the way the process worked at the time (2nd place for President was VP and thus your primary opposition). So really, you are looking at only 3 VPs who were successfully elected upon the Coattails of the previous administration (MvB from Andrew Jackson, Nixon from Eisenhower, and Bush from Reagan).

Also, your argument versus the random person on the street becoming President versus a Vice President is incredibly ignorant. Vice Presidents are not random people picked off the street and then due solely to their time as Vice Presidents, suddenly capable of launching a successful presidential campaign. They are life long politicians who the VP is simply one more step along the way and more often than not, a misstep if their true ambition is to be President.

Oh, so it's even more? A Veep has a 31% chance of becoming President if he runs... ya I guess that`s not very high...

It`s not ignorant in the least. The VP has a 31% chance of winning. Forget private citizens, calculate the chances of a Senator, a Majority leader, a Speaker of the house, a governor, etc etc etc. No other position has a higher rate of creating presidents than the Vice Presidency.

[Mimirswell]

Five governors of New York have successfully been elected President.

[Malakriss]

3 succeeded, 2 defaulted, 11 failed.

Using percentages on sample sizes less than 100 is retarded.