Green Monster Games (Curt Schilling)

[Tyen]

Fallout...omgooses

[Moorgard Mobhunter]

Originally Posted by Abalieno

The idea that WoW opened up the market for other companies is a myth that devs are using as a way to find foundings from all those people out there with lots of money but no brain. And it works.

Rather than a bunch of scheming developers looking to take advantage of investor naiveté, often it's a case of venture capitalists looking for ways to compound their money seeking out hot trends like WoW's splash in the MMO market.

But anyway, I question the notion that WoW has a unique market that won't shift to any other MMO. Whenever there is a huge success in a given movie genre (fantasy, superhero, horror, etc.) there are a dozen similar movies released afterward. Those that are good films become hits while the poorly made ones tank. But to say that no fantasy movie could be a huge hit after the Lord of the Rings trilogy's success would be absurd; it all depends on the quality of the movie.

With games, I believe a game that is fun, polished, well-marketed, and easily available for purchase and play can absolutely attract WoW players as well as a huge segment of the population that never tried MMOs before. It comes down to the quality of the game and the ability for the average person to see it, want it, buy it, install it, and enjoy it.

That's a rather simplistic way to put it, but there is no shortage of companies that managed to screw up one or more of those steps horribly.

[Cuppycake]

I'm going to have to agree with Steve on this one. WoW has turned so many of my non-gaming friends into gamers. One of my best friends is someone who was never into fantasy novels, roleplaying games, or fantasy movies. She'd never seen LoTR, Star Wars, or any of those types of movies. She'd never owned a console game in her life, and only tried The Sims once for a week when it first came out. She watched me playing a Night Elf in WoW and the next day went out to Best Buy and bought a "brand new super awesome computer!!!!" (It was an HP for like 500 bucks) and bought WoW. She became quickly addicted and now because of the game she's now out reading fansites and forums, she bought a PS2 and a DS, she rented LoTR and Star Wars and bought a couple fantasy novels by RA Salvatore.

She also now is all about trying other MMO's. I tried to explain to her that the computer she bought may run WoW perfectly, but its not going to run EQ2 or VG:SoH for shit. She's not the only one I know who started out with WoW as their first MMO and then moved to EQ2 or another game. I'd say that WoW did a fantastic job of getting these people through the door and welcoming them to the land of MMO addiction -- but I wouldn't say these people are stuck with WoW. There is a definite potential for something truly awesome to be released that could end up gaining a lot of WoW's subscribers. Its not beyond the realm of possibilities.

[Druixx]

Originally Posted by Cuppycake

There is a definite potential for something truly awesome to be released that could end up gaining a lot of WoW's subscribers. Its not beyond the realm of possibilities.

Like World of Starcraft?

On a more serious note, I have a friend exactly like that, too. He had never really played any video games seriously (dabbled a bit in a few, but never addicted to anything) and certainly never read fantasy books or cared much for Tolkein-esque games.

After watching me and my former roommate play WoW for a month, he asked to create a character on one of our accounts, got addicted, levelled the char to mid 30's (at which point we started getting annoyed that my roommate could not play while he was on his account) and then he went out and bought his own copy.

I bet there are millions of such stories.

WoW was great for the genre. Period.

[Eomer]

My friends who don't even own a PC know about Leroy Jenkins (which is ironic cause to this day I've never bothered to watch it). It doesn't matter that they don't even play the game; it just goes to show that WoW made a niche genre pretty damn mainstream.

[Gaereth]

The market has a lot more exposure due to WOW which is a good thing all around and should have created a larger player base that other companies can pull from. However, as Moorgard said, companies tend to screw up the execution of facets of their game and thusly can't get subscribers to migrate.

You also have the 'strike while the iron is hot' in these games and that is your launch window and the first few hours of play. By all accounts EQ2 is a much better game now than it was at release, yet it hasn't benefitted from the WOW exposure to any noticeable degree due to the fact all of its changes came years after its initial launch.

The degree of polish and fun that WOW provides makes the subscriber a much harder sell for other games even as it is bringing in new people to the genre. In some ways it is a double edged sword; WOW brings new folks to the table but it gives them a set of expectations for a game that very few publishers have been able to provide.

[Abalieno]

Originally Posted by Moorgard Mobhunter

But anyway, I question the notion that WoW has a unique market that won't shift to any other MMO.

Not as an assumption.

It's a mistake to consider that as an open market.

1- It WAS a mistake thinking that this market didn't exist before WoW.

2- It is a mistake NOW to believe that this market is independent from WoW.

BOTH are mistakes. What people think change with the wind. You have to figure out what's real and what's perception. The fact that the MMO market grew for everyone is a wrong perception.

With games, I believe a game that is fun, polished, well-marketed, and easily available for purchase and play can absolutely attract WoW players as well as a huge segment of the population that never tried MMOs before.

SURE. But that's the point.

To be wrong is the assumption that you automatically have WoW's players and that today the MMO market is easier because there's a larger public to feed.

The "Vision" isn't about stealing someone else's pie. The Vision is anticipating something that isn't here yet. A successful game has to move past WoW, not behind it.

The product makes the market. First you have the product, then you have the resulting market. The STUPID idea is that there's a market that can be fed every sort of product just because there's an implicit demand.

What I'm saying is: the market may be slightly bigger due to exposition, but it's not as big as people think to justify all this enthusiasm and all sort of stupid start ups. It's a growth, but it's a growth completely compensated and overwhelmed by the stronger competition.

Making a MMO today isn't simpler than how it was five years ago. Arguably, it's HARDER, more risky and likely to fail.

[ralph]

Uh, time commitment of watching a movie vs. playing an MMO is a little different.

[darksensei]

Not to mention cheaper, I know if it weren't for the extra 200+ bucks a year I'd love to subscribe to EQII to play on occasion. It is hard to be casual when you're paying near the cost of a new game every 2 months.

But to say that the market is closed to new games if foolish. Blizzard is a humongous name, but Bioware is very large, R.A. Salvatore is another big name. Star Wars done right would do very well too. Basically it is very difficult for new games to come out of no where but similarly big names can compete for the large numbers Warcraft has.

[Soygen]

No offense Abalieno, but do you have any experience in the actual business/marketing end of the gaming industry(more importantly in the MMO genre) or are you just a random gamer who is trying to play their theories off as facts?

[biteablegravy]

No offense Abalieno, but do you have any experience in the actual business/marketing end of the gaming industry(more importantly in the MMO genre) or are you just a random gamer who is trying to play their theories off as facts?

A lot of it makes sense. Warcraft seems to be a 'right place right time' kinda game. I honestly think the only thing that will be the wow killer is time. This generation of mmo players will eventually graduate from college, start a family, and leave the genre behind. Of course that still leaves plenty of years for Blizzard to dominate.. It'll be extremely difficult to steal the majority of this playerbase.

[bitch are your retarded?]

No one said anything about killing wow or majority subs. There's a big difference between releasing a game to a market of hundreds of thousands willing to subscribe monthly to a game and a market of multi-millions. You're absolutely retarded if you think brand loyalty can have any impact when comparing a market that has witnessed exponential growth like this one. It's not even worth arguing.

Vanguard will continue to suck, but by sheer elementary math they will sell an increased number of boxes because of the exponentially larger market that wow has introduced to MMO's. I'd say it's about the only thing Vanguard has going for it, and will lose all its momentum soon thereafter

[Stosh]

Originally Posted by Moorgard Mobhunter

But anyway, I question the notion that WoW has a unique market that won't shift to any other MMO.

Of course you question the notion, you've been and are employed as a mouthpiece by companies that are in direct competition with WoW. We don't expect you to say "We here at SoE/GMG are in the business of picking up the crumbs left by WoW."

Can somebody identify which MMO has seen significant subscriber growth that can be attributed to WoW expanding the market? Where has this business theory been proven?

[Abalieno]

Originally Posted by Stosh

Can somebody identify which MMO has seen significant subscriber growth that can be attributed to WoW expanding the market? Where has this business theory been proven?

The opposite can be demonstrated.

A lot of MMOs have lost a significant number of subscribers after WoW's release.

[darksensei]

How many people here play Warcraft? How many people here played Everquest before that (or UO, AC, etc). While people seem to get fed up with their current game, there seems to be a strong retention within the genre itself. Only unlike brief things, it seems to take years to manifest. By the time GMG comes out with their game WoW will be very outdated graphically, people whom have been playing for years will be getting burnt out. But if there was a way to see this through, I'd wager Bioware's MMO and GMG surpass 1 million subscribers each perhaps even higher depending on the game itself.