US April Hardware Sales, NPD

[RiskyChris]

Originally Posted by Kildace

But you still bought it 2 months later. Which is exactly my point.

I'm considerably more hardcore about pursuing games I want to play than the mainstream consumer. For how many people will Wii satisfy their gaming needs? Assuming each GC and XB owner owned a PS2 also (no GC/XB overlap, however), there's still 60 million or so PS2s that live in homes with no other system.

Wii is competition for PS3/360 and the HD systems will suffer sales loss due to Wii's dominance.

[Szlia]

I think we went through this allready two months ago. You look at the market at an hyper macro level where bucks are exchanged for entertainment. But if you do it at this level then it makes no sense to talk only about game consoles, you must put into your model all forms of entertainement that can be obtained with money.

We look at it at a much more micro level where products are there to fullfill some expectations and needs of different people, different target audiences, that sometimes overlap one another, or even are included in an other. The point many made again and again is that the Wii, the PS3 and the X360 have different target audiences. There is obviously some overlapping, but not much when it comes to the Wii.

Annecdotal evidence? Sure why not. Of all the people I know who bought a Wii or were interested in one at some point, none (or maybe one) would have bought a X360 or a PS3. It got bought for children, it got bought for party haha, it got bought because it's so different from PC gaming.

[RiskyChris]

Originally Posted by Szlia

I think we went through this allready two months ago. You look at the market at an hyper macro level where bucks are exchanged for entertainment. But if you do it at this level then it makes no sense to talk only about game consoles, you must put into your model all forms of entertainement that can be obtained with money.

We look at it at a much more micro level where products are there to fullfill some expectations and needs of different people, different target audiences, that sometimes overlap one another, or even are included in an other. The point many made again and again is that the Wii, the PS3 and the X360 have different target audiences. There is obviously some overlapping, but not much when it comes to the Wii.

Annecdotal evidence? Sure why not. Of all the people I know who bought a Wii or were interested in one at some point, none (or maybe one) would have bought a X360 or a PS3. It got bought for children, it got bought for party haha, it got bought because it's so different from PC gaming.

Definitely. In many cases, the purchaser of a given console bought it because that was the proper console fit for him. The interesting thing that happens this generation is the Wii "fits" a lot of people who weren't interested in a 360 or a PS3. I'm not prepared to accept that the majority of Wii owners are people who would otherwise stay away from this generation of gaming had Nintendo gone a different route. What happens when Wii starts picking up exclusives that used to belong to the Sony fanbase? Wii increases its marketability to people who were ready to choose PS3.

[Sharmai]

The though that the PS3 and Wii audiences do not overlap is idiotic. Yes the Wii targets a much wider demographic but the Wii's demographic is everyone. period.

The though that the majority of gamers who can afford a PS3/X360 but bought a Wii instead and will go out and purchase a PS3/X360 in the future is flawed.

Much like hardcore gamers and enthusits we see things in a narrow cone of vision, we will buy multiple systems because we are gamers. But we also all have super high end computers and play MMO's also.

The audience that needs to be the target of our conversations is the MASSES. I.E. the same demographic that drove PS2/PS1 sales. This demograhic is not made up soley of hardcore gamers, middle age gamers, gamers who will own more then one system, etc etc. This demographic is made up of parents who will only buy 1 system in a given time period and even then it has to meet a certain price limit, It is made up of casual gamers who like smoe quick fun, It is made of up hardcore gamers who will own all systems if the games exisit for them, IT IS MADE UP OF EVERYONE.

Everyone means the target audiences of the Wii and the PS3 and X360 when speaking on a mass level DO OVERLAP.

The questions we should be asking are..
Are the masses who drive console sales willing to buy more them one gaming system?
How long will it take them before they will buy an additional system?
What is the maximum price they are willing to consider on that additional purchase?


My answers to that are.

Yes eventually but no in the short term. Little timmy's mom who makes 150k a year can afford two systems but she ain't buyin him 2 systems within 6 months-1year. Not were the masses are concerned.

It will probably take 2 years or more depending on games. Note as time moves forward the potential population that will buy an additional system goes DOWN not UP.

Here is the biggest sticker. Are the MASSES willing to pay upwards of $400? Espically if its for an additional system?

If x360 is an indication then 10million or so people sounds like a good number. The problem is it took x360 what 2 years to reach 10 million people? Thats with a much MUCh better online service and existing game base then PS3 currently. And its without a massive super cheap Wii console as competition.

How can two 400$+ systems compete with a 250$ system? And hope to get ujpwards of 20 million users?


Remeber even if `10 millino people buy a system and it is successful. If the Wii has 60 million. Where are the majority of games going to head to?

[Szlia]

Oh so maybe it was Sharmai two months ago...

[Kildace]

Originally Posted by Sharmai

The audience that needs to be the target of our conversations is the MASSES. I.E. the same demographic that drove PS2/PS1 sales. This demographic is not made up solely of hardcore gamers, middle age gamers, gamers who will own more then one system, etc etc. This demographic is made up of parents who will only buy 1 system in a given time period and even then it has to meet a certain price limit, It is made up of casual gamers who like some quick fun, It is made of up hardcore gamers who will own all systems if the games exist for them, IT IS MADE UP OF EVERYONE.

Everyone means the target audiences of the Wii and the PS3 and X360 when speaking on a mass level DO OVERLAP.

No, no, no, no. People who would consider buying a $800 PS3 are people who are into HD gaming, who are into the PlayStation franchise and to whom gaming is a passion. That's the crux of my argument: Most people who could buy the PS3, could buy the PS3 and the Wii. The type of parents who would be ready to buy a PS3 to their kids will absolutely buy them a Wii a couple of months later. People who count their money *do not* buy PS3s to their children.

Sure the target audiences overlap, but the bit that overlaps is made up of people who could and would buy both consoles.


Anyhow, I'm tired of arguing this. I just don't see the Wii as competition to the PS3 / 360. Sure it will keep selling, of course games are going to be released for the platform, but I expect that there'll be 1 "good" Wii game that comes out for 10 "good" Xbox360 / PS3 games.

[Sithro]

Originally Posted by Kildace

Anyhow, I'm tired of arguing this. I just don't see the Wii as competition to the PS3 / 360. Sure it will keep selling, of course games are going to be released for the platform, but I expect that there'll be 1 "good" Wii game that comes out for 10 "good" Xbox360 / PS3 games.

I'm going to say that I seriously disagree. But then, we'll just have to wait and see what happens in the future.

Everything until then is speculation. :|

[RiskyChris]

Originally Posted by Kildace

Anyhow, I'm tired of arguing this. I just don't see the Wii as competition to the PS3 / 360. Sure it will keep selling, of course games are going to be released for the platform, but I expect that there'll be 1 "good" Wii game that comes out for 10 "good" Xbox360 / PS3 games.

Wow. How do you figure?

[Kildace]

Originally Posted by RiskyChris

Wow. How do you figure?

Because:

Developing a game for the Wii means no multiplatform, unlike developing a game for the PS3 / 360.

The games that have sold the most on the system are "waggle" mini-games: Wii Sports outsells Zelda on a 2:1 basis (Even Wii Play outsells Zelda), and I don't think that any third-party game is going to sell more than Zelda on a Nintendo console. Ever.

The Wii not providing an integrated online solution means that any dev who is planning on making a game with an extensive online mode will never make it a Wii exclusive.

The 360 has a much higher game bought / console ratio than the Wii.

A large number of Wii owners do not care about games that I would consider "good". They want Big Brain Academy and Wii Sports. It is indeed likely that the Wii is going to overtake the 360 soon-ish, but this absolutely does not mean that a quality Wii RPG would outsell a quality 360 RPG, and developers know this.

[RiskyChris]

Originally Posted by Kildace

Because:

Developing a game for the Wii means no multiplatform, unlike developing a game for the PS3 / 360.

The games that have sold the most on the system are "waggle" mini-games: Wii Sports outsells Zelda on a 2:1 basis (Even Wii Play outsells Zelda), and I don't think that any third-party game is going to sell more than Zelda on a Nintendo console. Ever.

The Wii not providing an integrated online solution means that any dev who is planning on making a game with an extensive online mode will never make it a Wii exclusive.

The 360 has a much higher game bought / console ratio than the Wii.

A large number of Wii owners do not care about games that I would consider "good". They want Big Brain Academy and Wii Sports. It is indeed likely that the Wii is going to overtake the 360 soon-ish, but this absolutely does not mean that a quality Wii RPG would outsell a quality 360 RPG, and developers know this.

Super Paper Mario is well on its way to outsell its previous iterations in Japan soon -- it's been in the top 10 the past 3 or 4 weeks (since release).

Also, it was the best selling game in America this past month. Wii will receive quality games -- stop trying to claim that the whole userbase is some collective hive that only wants minigames.

No game should aspire for Zelda numbers. Are we talking about America here? Where it's sold millions? Just checking. Traditional/quality gaming is here to stay on Wii.

[Sithro]

does not mean that a quality Wii RPG would outsell a quality 360 RPG

It likely would, as Wii has Japan, and they eat RPGs up.

Developing a game for the Wii means no multiplatform, unlike developing a game for the PS3 / 360.

That's bullshit. Rayman Raving Rabbids was developed on Wii, and ported to the PS2 and 360 already. Do you think developers wouldn't adopt to a generation like this one? Chances are, they're already working on ways to get games to work on all three systems no matter where the game originates.

[Sharmai]

Originally Posted by Kildace

No, no, no, no. People who would consider buying a $800 PS3 are people who are into HD gaming, who are into the PlayStation franchise and to whom gaming is a passion. That's the crux of my argument: Most people who could buy the PS3, could buy the PS3 and the Wii. The type of parents who would be ready to buy a PS3 to their kids will absolutely buy them a Wii a couple of months later. People who count their money *do not* buy PS3s to their children.

Sure the target audiences overlap, but the bit that overlaps is made up of people who could and would buy both consoles.


Anyhow, I'm tired of arguing this. I just don't see the Wii as competition to the PS3 / 360. Sure it will keep selling, of course games are going to be released for the platform, but I expect that there'll be 1 "good" Wii game that comes out for 10 "good" Xbox360 / PS3 games.

In other words people who buy ps3's are just as likleyl to have a wii. And people who don't buy ps3's are still likely to have a wii..

[Simas]

I agree with Sean on this one, Wii, no matter how many units its selling, is not getting the new mature hits, for lack of a better phrase. Wii is not like old systems, its like the console DS or something and people are playing it for non-traditional (what id call "wierd ass") games.

Every "gamer" I know that has a Wii no longer touches it, they beat Zelda and spent a week or two on Sports or Monkey Ball or Wario or Play and now theyre done. They all plan on playing it again when Brawl comes out. The people currently buying the Wii's are not hardcore gamers, they already bought them. Theyre my bosses g/f who has only ever owned a DS but heard Wii had a cooking mama game so she had to get one. She could give a shit less about Metroid.

Who fucking cares, sells are sells, its like that one interview saying Wii was just an impulse buy, even if that is the case impulse buy money is the same as any other money in Nintendo's pocket.

On the 360/PS3 front I never planned on buying a 360, I simply dont care for most of the games on it, but after playing Halo 3 beta I might be changing my mind. Ive been looking at some games on 360 to see if there is anything besides Halo i'd care to play and hadnt really found anything (although I hadnt come across most of those RPG's) so I was debating a 360 for Halo or a PS3.

About a year from now PS3 has a bunch of games I think I'll want. Xbox still will only have a few. I have no idea why Sony thought they could launch with out any games but in a year theyll be doing just fine, and hopefully dropped price by then.

Point being Wii will continue to do well and hardcore gamers will continue to play 2 or 3 games on it while your Mom, babysitter, prom queen, etc all play Wii sports 2. Halo 3 is good enough to move 360's w/o a price drop. Sony has hedged its bets that MSG4, FFXIII, Little Big Planet, Home, Ratchet and Clank, Kill Zone, Warhawk etc will be enough to turn around sales when they come out. Time will tell.

[RiskyChris]

Originally Posted by Simas

I agree with Sean on this one, Wii, no matter how many units its selling, is not getting the new mature hits, for lack of a better phrase. Wii is not like old systems, its like the console DS or something and people are playing it for non-traditional (what id call "wierd ass") games.

What do you mean it's not getting the mature hits? That's such a blanket statement my head is spinning. Manhunt 2 may be the most violent game of the generation.

Also, a Rygar game was just announced for Wii. Exclusive. IGN: Project Rygar Arrives on Wii

Edit: Stop using the early Wii library as indicative of future trends. When the PS2's early lineup was pure shit that told us squat about the great titles we'd soon see.

[Wizerud]

Originally Posted by RiskyChris

When the PS3's early lineup was pure shit that told us squat about the great titles we'd soon see.

There, that's better