Blizzard not evaluating AoC as a threat?

[Runnen]

Originally Posted by Sharmai

Depends on if WoW release another expansion or if they release another MMO. Or if a major WoW killer shows up.

EQ lasted much longer than that, and didn't have near the financial support or the popularity of Warcraft. While I agree that the very long development time of WoW may lead its numbers to stagnate eventually (so far they are only increasing), there is absolutely no way WoW would "die" in 2.5 years, unless an asteroid hits San Diego and even then I have my doubts.

I predict at least 5 or 6 more years for WoW, the only exception would be if Blizzard releases WoW 2 before then (yeah right). Even a Starcraft MMO wouldn't kill WoW, since I'm quite sure that many players (myself included) would play both franchises.

[Kreugen]

I'm pretty sure WoW has a planned expansion cycle and won't repeat EQ's "uh, all the Gods are dead, now what?" nonsense. So release X expansions and then leave it for dead while working on a sequel.

[kaid]

yes the people who bring us demonic space paladins have it all planned out.

[Arbitrary]

Originally Posted by kaid

yes the people who bring us demonic space paladins have it all planned out.

What does Warhammer 40k have to do with this?

[Runnen]

Originally Posted by kaid

yes the people who bring us demonic space paladins have it all planned out.

It is undeniable that Chris Metzen is making some of the story up as he goes, he never hid that fact, he admits to it several times in BlizzCon lore panels, and has even admitted to getting confused in his own storyline after he ret-conned the origin of Sargeras.

That said, Warcraft has an enormous potential of future storylines without even creating new major characters. Off the top of my head :

* Outland has many inactive portals (already seen in TBC) that once activated lead to other planets ruled by the Legion (can be seen in Blade's Edge Mountain at Death's Door for instance). Those portals could be used for instances to go and cleanse X or Y planet (hehe they should release that to counter Stargate Worlds!).

* The Maelstrom has two underwater empires beneath it (Nazjatar and Makrura) as well as the Tomb of Sargeras, and an Old God.

* The Emerald Dream is being corrupted by the Serpentine Nightmare while Ysera, Malfurion and Eranikus are attempting to counter the corruption. The five Dream Trees are already in the game (the fifth will be in Northrend)..

* The Old Gods and the Elemental Lords were imprisoned in the Abyssal Realm, leaving the Elemental Realm in chaos. Ragnaros is already in game but only in an extremely weak form, and there are tons of areas in the game (Twilight's Hammer areas) that show they are attempting to get access to the Abyssal Realm, so expect some action there too.

Of course there are also the zones already on the map but not implemented.. Kul'Tiras, Grim Batol, Uldum, Mount Hyjal (present time), as well as various areas for instance bordering the Plaguelands or near Silverpine Forest. Even TBC was planned with that in mind, since there are still heroes of the Alliance who went to Outland and that haven't been seen in the expansion, leading us to believe there are unexplored areas in Outland.. such as Deathwing's Lair (mentionned in in-game dialogue at the Dragonmaw Fortress..)

This material alone, if used correctly (and I have no doubt that Blizzard can milk that potential for all it's worth and more), could give them easily 4 expansions without having to invent anything new. Then they can always continue existing storylines and start anew from there.. say WoW 2. Blizzard does a lot of things, but going forward blindly certainly isn't one of them, and the time they devote to developping and making sure everything's fine (as fine as possible with investors breathing down your neck for release that is) certainly is proof of this.

[gnomad]

Originally Posted by Kreugen

I'm pretty sure WoW has a planned expansion cycle and won't repeat EQ's "uh, all the Gods are dead, now what?" nonsense. So release X expansions and then leave it for dead while working on a sequel.

You could tell from day one that they had planned WoW for the long term. Look at all the instance access points that still won't be functional when WotLK comes out.

Of course EQ had many dead ends that never got finished but I really don't see Blizz pulling that same type of stupid stunt.

[Manseed]

WOW can absolutely be beaten.

There is no doubt that WOW is incredibly successful. But you have to consider the actual value of subscribers. For instance, the majority of wow subscribers are asian. Only 2.5 million subs in the US/Europe that pay $15 a month.

So far, with no sales figures, everyone is talking about some pretty big 1st week numbers for Conan in the US/Europe. That is a huge fucking chunk of WOW's most valuable customers.

If you don't associate an actual value to every subscription, then there are free MMOs that beat the shit out of WOW. If you do apply that value, WOW seems much more beatable.

Nobody here can say whether Conan could ever pull it off. Nobody knows how sticky it is going to be a few months down the line. But to say that it is impossible to dethrone WOW is just stupid.

[Runnen]

Originally Posted by Manseed

WOW can absolutely be beaten.

There is no doubt that WOW is incredibly successful. But you have to consider the actual value of subscribers. For instance, the majority of wow subscribers are asian. Only 2.5 million subs in the US/Europe that pay $15 a month.

So far, with no sales figures, everyone is talking about some pretty big 1st week numbers for Conan in the US/Europe. That is a huge fucking chunk of WOW's most valuable customers.

If you don't associate an actual value to every subscription, then there are free MMOs that beat the shit out of WOW. If you do apply that value, WOW seems much more beatable.

Nobody here can say whether Conan could ever pull it off. Nobody knows how sticky it is going to be a few months down the line. But to say that it is impossible to dethrone WOW is just stupid.

I'm not here to play Blizzard's advocate but two things strike me as odd in your post :

* "only" 2.5 million suscribers in Europe / US. Only?? That's twice the EQ playerbase at its peak.

* Who ever said that people who buy AoC would cancel their WoW subscription? Personnally I often have two subs on different MMOs at the same time (currently WoW and CoX).. people like to log on for raids / fun in WoW then go play something else during downtime or on weeknds.. or simply like to switch whenever one game burns them out.. AoC may sell very well, and I hope it does.. but that doesn't mean every AoC box sold is one less WoW customer.. on the contrary, AoC may appeal to some people who have never touched a MMO before solely based on the mature content, and they may get sucked into WoW because it's mainstream and their friends will tell them to try it out..

[Deris]

http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart11.html

Says that 2.5 million is NA alone. 700,000 Pre Orders out of 4.5 Million is uh... yeah. Anyways next?

Until I see a review of the max level content - you know, the shit that matters (from a not shitty player, so that counts 90% of you bitches out), I'm not touching that pile of AoC shit. It sucked complete horse ass (lol pun intended) in beta, and I saw nothing "New" "Revolutionary" or "Genre Defining" outside of shitty combat that was uninspired, with little to no movement, nor brains required.

[Twobit Whore]

Originally Posted by Runnen

* "only" 2.5 million suscribers in Europe / US. Only?? That's twice the EQ playerbase at its peak.

No, it's 6x EQ at it's peak. And WoW has 2.5 in NA and 2.5 in EU.. for a total of 5 millionish, which is over 10x EQ at it's peak.

[Mist]

Originally Posted by Manseed

Only 4.5 million subs in the US/Europe that pay $15 a month.

Fixed. It's 2.5 mil US, 2 mil Europe. Korea and Taiwan pay a decent amount too.

[Vim]

If you-all are so worried about Blizzards content production rate, why not fork over some cash for some Vivendi stocks and send some input.

EDIT: Have you-all seen some of the new humanoid models for WOTLK? If they revamped all of WoW with those type of graphics, It'd be pretty much game over for a long-ER time.

[UnchainedAcolyte]

If there is competition it would be beneficial to everyone involved, and the genre. I'm sick of hearing companies bitch about how unbeatable WoW is, it's laughable.

They created a solid, well-rounded casual game with a few features with some high-end and PvP content. They've got excellent artwork and a decent amount of customizability for classes based on talents, gear and so forth.

It's fun.

I hope AoC and other games won't turn out to be flavors of the week, and could make a decent showing. WoW is at the top of the heap, and won't stay there, but I'd like to see them having some impetus for doing more and getting ideas for their next MMO.

I'd also like to see other studios, Funcom, Cryptic, EA get some confidence to try and be more innovative without just trying to copy WoW.

Competition is good for the individual business, for the customers, and for the industry. If AoC can provide some, even to a segment of the playerbase, more power to them.

[gnomad]

Originally Posted by UnchainedAcolyte

If there is competition it would be beneficial to everyone involved, and the genre. I'm sick of hearing companies bitch about how unbeatable WoW is, it's laughable.

They created a solid, well-rounded casual game with a few features with some high-end and PvP content. They've got excellent artwork and a decent amount of customizability for classes based on talents, gear and so forth.

It's fun.

I hope AoC and other games won't turn out to be flavors of the week, and could make a decent showing. WoW is at the top of the heap, and won't stay there, but I'd like to see them having some impetus for doing more and getting ideas for their next MMO.

I'd also like to see other studios, Funcom, Cryptic, EA get some confidence to try and be more innovative without just trying to copy WoW.

Competition is good for the individual business, for the customers, and for the industry. If AoC can provide some, even to a segment of the playerbase, more power to them.

That is the key and the reason the other MMORPG's haven't even come close to dethroning the current champ.

AoC won't do it either since it is very droll and the "mature" factor is nothing above the level of Beavis and Butthead humor...uh uh uh she said Bearded Clam man..hehehehe...

[Manseed]

*Only* was a comparison to 10 (almost 11) million.

Why all of the EQ comparisons? It's also like 75x the pop of UO at its prime. What does that matter? Second place in NA right now is LOTR last I checked. Not EQ 8 years ago.

So let's say that the numbers we're hearing are correct and Conan is close to 1 million sold. It isn't even the end of week 1. Fuck it's only day 2. Yet still Conan could never dethrone WOW, who as far as we know is at 4x the playerbase after growing for 4 years. Granted, that's all if the numbers are at all valid.