Blizzard not evaluating AoC as a threat?

[Qhue]

One of the more interesting aspects to WoW over the last 4 years has been Blizzard's tenacity in scheduling significant content releases to coincide with the arrival of any potential challengers to its marketshare. Someone even jokingly asked Scott Hartsman (Gallenite) to move up the release of the EQ2 Kunark expansion in order to get a major patch released for WoW.

Now in nearly every case the product that Blizzard counter-programmed against was not even remotely a threat to their established customer base or even a serious threat to their increasing market share, but nevertheless they still continued to counter-program and even seemed to pace out their content updates to match the other offerings from their competitors.

Age of Conan seems to be enjoying some really good buzz at the moment and has gotten quite a bit of free marketing on here and various news blogs. I don't see it as a significant threat to the global behemoth that is WoW, although I can easily see a good number of MMORPG regulars venturing to try out the game due to boredom with Blizzard's 4 year old extremely sllloooowwww to update title.

Does Blizzard believe that "Season 4" of the Arena counts as counter marketing because they perceive AoC as primarily a PVP oriented title? Or is it that after so many quarters of unparalleled success they've grown complacent and believe that minimal response at best is all that is needed and will only start to really worry if their subscription rate starts to slow its steady advance?

My personal bet is that they intended Sunwell to counter-program against AoC / Warhammer and realized that they simply couldnt hold the finished content back any longer and thus had to release it rather than continue to track AoC / Warhammer's series of delays. While Sunwell was a very much overdue infusion of new content into the game, the timing of its release didnt really coincide with any particular threat or historical downturn in subscription numbers (Summertime or early Autumn for example).

Funcom's greatest move, albeit perhaps unintentional, might be in setting a release date that slides nicely into the downward stroke of the occasional Blizzard content updates.

[Sharmai]

Isn't AoC 18+? Which means 99% of WoWer's won't ever see it....
Edit** There was also the large possibility of it being another Vanguard so why waste the dollars? Of course its looking like its not a Vanguard at all atm so mabye that was a mistake in the Blizzard marketing department. Right now it seems it has some heavy but not major balance issues that need to be fixed (as all newly released mmo's do).

Some major things that look like they will go in favor of AoC are...
1. Lag in major PvP battles (AoC seems to have a handle on lag)
2. Lasting appeal beyond the initial release phase.. How much people love it 2+ months from now when the basics are fleshed out
3. Funcom's speed to applying patches
4. Initial sales. People think this will be a million++ seller but how much it actually sales and retains would make for good buzz noise.

Right now it looks like its on track...

[Quineloe]

Maybe they've played AoC beta?

[dreaderus]

Originally Posted by Qhue

One of the more interesting aspects to WoW over the last 4 years has been Blizzard's tenacity in scheduling significant content releases to coincide with the arrival of any potential challengers to its marketshare. Someone even jokingly asked Scott Hartsman (Gallenite) to move up the release of the EQ2 Kunark expansion in order to get a major patch released for WoW.

Now in nearly every case the product that Blizzard counter-programmed against was not even remotely a threat to their established customer base or even a serious threat to their increasing market share, but nevertheless they still continued to counter-program and even seemed to pace out their content updates to match the other offerings from their competitors.

Age of Conan seems to be enjoying some really good buzz at the moment and has gotten quite a bit of free marketing on here and various news blogs. I don't see it as a significant threat to the global behemoth that is WoW, although I can easily see a good number of MMORPG regulars venturing to try out the game due to boredom with Blizzard's 4 year old extremely sllloooowwww to update title.

Does Blizzard believe that "Season 4" of the Arena counts as counter marketing because they perceive AoC as primarily a PVP oriented title? Or is it that after so many quarters of unparalleled success they've grown complacent and believe that minimal response at best is all that is needed and will only start to really worry if their subscription rate starts to slow its steady advance?

My personal bet is that they intended Sunwell to counter-program against AoC / Warhammer and realized that they simply couldnt hold the finished content back any longer and thus had to release it rather than continue to track AoC / Warhammer's series of delays. While Sunwell was a very much overdue infusion of new content into the game, the timing of its release didnt really coincide with any particular threat or historical downturn in subscription numbers (Summertime or early Autumn for example).

Funcom's greatest move, albeit perhaps unintentional, might be in setting a release date that slides nicely into the downward stroke of the occasional Blizzard content updates.

I was expecting them to announce expansion talents when AOC launched, but nope nothing came about really.

AOC is good enough to affect wow perhaps not the way some would expect (take half their subs) but its a good enough change of pace so that the 2-3 year players who are tired and burnt out and want a fresh perspective are going to drift here at least for a few months

[EmiliaEQ]

Originally Posted by Sharmai

Isn't AoC 18+? Which means 99% of WoWer's won't ever see it....

Like the 18+ will actually be a problem..

Mature Game + Decapitation + Burn/Rape/Kill => Retard Magnet

[Zarcath]

I would like to think it's more a case of Blizzard not having any new content to warrant horn tooting. I'd hate to think Blizzard intentionally holds back needed content just to dick the competition.

[Sharmai]

Originally Posted by Zarcath

I would like to think it's more a case of Blizzard not having any new content to warrant horn tooting. I'd hate to think Blizzard intentionally holds back needed content just to dick the competition.

Bliz has tons of WOTLK content they could release at any moment....

Also could release more SC2 details..

[Muligan]

With their success and money they have brought in, I doubt Blizzard even cares. They know what they are working on and there is a whole lot we really don't know.

When most people try new MMO's they either leave their current favorite on sub or they may cancel it only to return to their "deeply time invested" favorite within months. So if Blizzard loses even a few hundred thousand in North America and few more hundred thousand internationally, they know a WoW expansion is coming, Starcraft 2 is coming, and an entirely new MMO is coming. They'll continue to rake in from a few million subscribers which is still better than any other MMO, sit back, and relax.

They are in a great position and have a great advantage creatively and from a business aspect as well.

[Black_Death]

I would also say that a good number of people that leave WoW to try out AoC will keep their WoW accounts active, so AoC might see higher box sales and initial subs, but it won't hurt WoW.

[Sharmai]

Originally Posted by Black_Death

I would also say that a good number of people that leave WoW to try out AoC will keep their WoW accounts active, so AoC might see higher box sales and initial subs, but it won't hurt WoW.

This is probably me in a nutshell. I think when it goes live I'll hit up someone on here for a friend code the play it for awhile but what would really grab me and make me a AoC lifer is finding out the finer details of PvP and what it means to the game.. I mean will it turn into another glorified Alterac Valley (ugh) or will there be epic seiges during the night to take over a keep as the enemy is sleeping? Can we build and maintain fortresses and have to keep the protected to have larger fortresses? Before I invest hundreds of hours into another MMO I'd like to get a good feeling of the depth of the PvP I am jumping into.

[Qhue]

I'm horrible about letting subscriptions continue on long after I stop playing a game... Now that I think about it I might still be subscribed to LOTRO

[Rezz]

Hah, this isn't terribly on topic but Qhue's post reminded me to unsubscribe from LoTRO and FFXI since I haven't played either in a year =X Hi2u more beer money!

[Kuriin]

Originally Posted by Sharmai

Isn't AoC 18+? Which means 99% of WoWer's won't ever see it....
Edit** There was also the large possibility of it being another Vanguard so why waste the dollars? Of course its looking like its not a Vanguard at all atm so mabye that was a mistake in the Blizzard marketing department. Right now it seems it has some heavy but not major balance issues that need to be fixed (as all newly released mmo's do).

Some major things that look like they will go in favor of AoC are...
1. Lag in major PvP battles (AoC seems to have a handle on lag)
2. Lasting appeal beyond the initial release phase.. How much people love it 2+ months from now when the basics are fleshed out
3. Funcom's speed to applying patches
4. Initial sales. People think this will be a million++ seller but how much it actually sales and retains would make for good buzz noise.

Right now it looks like its on track...

1) 1% of WoW isn't composed of adults. I'd say over 30% are adults.

2) WoW doesn't necessarily have lag in PvP. The only lag I've noticed in the past 4 or so years (EXCEPT FOR LAUNCH MONTH) was AQ gate opening event. When the entire server who was at that level, was there. 400+ people.

I'm not really sure how speedy Funcom is as I haven't played many if any of their games.

[Vim]

Flying combat, lol...

[Sharmai]

Originally Posted by Vim

Flying combat, lol...

AoC has flying combat? flying PvP combat? That should make PvP battles very awesome..