WOW - Random Number Mechanics

QuiggyB · 07-01-2006, 03:15 AM

Just from observation but it seems that a lot of random things in wow are not really all that random. Its seems prone to producing streaks of very similar results. This could be because there is not enough uniqueness in the keys feeding the random number generator.

Question: Can someone please explain the things that feed into the creation of whatever the random number generator is seeded with when an instance id is created. This is specifically for 40 man raids in MC, BWL, etc. Its probably a combination of things but if its tied in any major way to the character or guild that created the raid then that would explain the streaks since the same guy tends to create the same raids at the same times each week.

Another question: Is loot determined at the time the mob is killed or at the time you are first saved to the instance and a raid id is created?

Thanks

Drauk · 07-01-2006, 03:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuiggyB

Another question: Is loot determined at the time the mob is killed or at the time you are first saved to the instance and a raid id is created?

There was a thread on SA by former GM. He said that with GM interface you can see what loot will a particular mob drop.

Deris · 07-01-2006, 05:01 AM

As much as Blizzard swears up and down that loot is not determined by raid ID's, we would keep the same raid ID (back when instances were semi-broken) alive for weeks at a time, and consistently get the same drops with minor variations. If we wanted Mageblades, we got mageblades, if we wanted something new - we'd change the Raid ID up, etc.

One night when our instances weren't saving and were being reset repeatedly (we killed Luci 3 times that night) we got the same drops twice in a row from one ID, switched ID's, and got entirely different drops.

Torrid · 07-01-2006, 05:59 AM

The problem is the sample size is way too small to reach any kind of conclusion. You can go into casinios and see some crazy streaks like roulette wheels landing the same color 30-40 times in a row. Streaks are more common than truely perceived randomness.

Personaly, I think that if MMOGs are going to use the RNG to determine drops from a weekly kill, then the loot pool needs to be shallow with similar percentages per item. Otherwise you end up with thunderfury-like scenarios. Nothing like some retard guild that started doing MC 8 months after you did getting a thunderfury before you. Or two.

Itzena · 07-01-2006, 06:40 AM

By definition, true random numbers have to be streaky - if they're spread out, it's an even distribution (i.e. not random).

Digo · 07-01-2006, 07:02 AM

Let's say a boss drops set gloves and he has a 1/8 chance of dropping any particular class gloves. The chance of getting 1 of each in 8 weeks is roughly 0.0024%. You're gonna see streaks.

Ludwigvan · 07-01-2006, 07:22 AM

Completely Random. From what I gather though, loot is generated when a monster is spawned. So the moment you zone in and the instance is created, loot is determined. They've said over and over that the RNG they use is not a seeded generator. Raid group voodoo will not change loot.
That said, theoretically, if an ID generates the instance, then it's possible that the mobs are all spawned in the same way, and that would explain the same boss drops when the Raid IDs were not reseting properly. This would not be a case of "raid seeding" but a case where the instance spawn determined the ID.
Human beings always like to see patterns in static. Any preceived streak is not a result of RNG's not being random, but of human cognitive function looking for a pattern.

Etadanik · 07-01-2006, 08:49 AM

It's possible to see what loots will drop beforehand because numbers generated by a computer are never truly random. If you have access to the seed, then you have access to what will be generated.

Ludwigvan · 07-01-2006, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Etadanik

It's possible to see what loots will drop beforehand because numbers generated by a computer are never truly random. If you have access to the seed, then you have access to what will be generated.

You must've missed the many posts stating that wow instances don't use a "seed" generation. Or rather, several seeds were used to generate the random strings well before you zone into an instance, and a random segment of the string is used to determine what loot is dropped. Assuming they use the same sort of generator they used for /rand or /roll.

There was a post on the forum address cries of "Roll Hax!" that explained it. It isn't that far of a stretch to say that the loot tables are determined by the same set of random strings.

Etadanik · 07-01-2006, 08:59 AM

It's the same idea. In this case, the string they use would be considered the seed value. The point is that it's completely possible to guess, beforehand, what numbers will be generated "randomly." Think about it - sure, they can use random strings. But what did they use to generate those strings? Regardless of how well you mask it, pseudo-random generation is still ultimately deterministic.

QuiggyB · 07-01-2006, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deris

One night when our instances weren't saving and were being reset repeatedly (we killed Luci 3 times that night) we got the same drops twice in a row from one ID, switched ID's, and got entirely different drops.

What needed to be different to get sufficiently different raid ids? Did the creator need to change, the guild the creator was in, or anything else?

I agree looking at one mob seeing the same loot several weeks in a row doesnt mean anything, but getting 95% the exact same loot from an entire MC clear three weeks in a row raises an eyebrow.

Ludwigvan · 07-01-2006, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Etadanik

It's the same idea. In this case, the string they use would be considered the seed value. The point is that it's completely possible to guess, beforehand, what numbers will be generated "randomly." Think about it - sure, they can use random strings. But what did they use to generate those strings? Regardless of how well you mask it, pseudo-random generation is still ultimately deterministic.

While deterministic, it's still random enough. Just because you know the seed doesn't mean you know what segment of the string is going to be used. They could be using a seed of a seed of a seed and spread the string through all instances. There's no way for a regular player to determine what their loot will be. No amount of voodoo will make Bindings drop more often.
Maybe we're areguning different ideas here.

Etadanik · 07-01-2006, 09:44 AM

Probably. All I'm arguing is that predictability does not mean that the Blizzard random number generator is fubar. It may very well be based on raid IDs, but even if it were not, it'd still be possible to determine what loots will drop on the basis of a few known variables. The regular player might not have access to them, but insiders certainly will.

Ludwigvan · 07-01-2006, 09:50 AM

I think there are many more variables at work than we can see. The Raid ID could just be the 3 values before and the 3 values after the string used to generate insance loot. And if all instances are pulling from the same string, that creates quite a bit of randomness not based on group composition or who the leader is.
Seems like it would be "random" enough. I don't think it's really all that predictable and the similarities people see in drops are simply patterns in the static.

Tingteng · 07-01-2006, 10:08 AM

Last night our warriors got their first set of wrath shoulders.
We had received one set of might shoulders in the last 5 months that went to a person who left the guild soon after.

They were happy to say the least.

07-01-2006, 03:15 AM	#1 (permalink)
QuiggyB Registered User Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 41 -1 Internets	WOW - Random Number Mechanics Just from observation but it seems that a lot of random things in wow are not really all that random. Its seems prone to producing streaks of very similar results. This could be because there is not enough uniqueness in the keys feeding the random number generator. Question: Can someone please explain the things that feed into the creation of whatever the random number generator is seeded with when an instance id is created. This is specifically for 40 man raids in MC, BWL, etc. Its probably a combination of things but if its tied in any major way to the character or guild that created the raid then that would explain the streaks since the same guy tends to create the same raids at the same times each week. Another question: Is loot determined at the time the mob is killed or at the time you are first saved to the instance and a raid id is created? Thanks

07-01-2006, 06:40 AM	#5 (permalink)
Itzena SOS-dan #76564674 Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Near a big fucking castle, the UK Posts: 6,037 -19 Internets	By definition, true random numbers have to be streaky - if they're spread out, it's an even distribution (i.e. not random). __________________

07-01-2006, 07:02 AM	#6 (permalink)
Digo Ad Hoc Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: orange county Posts: 1,210 +2 Internets	Let's say a boss drops set gloves and he has a 1/8 chance of dropping any particular class gloves. The chance of getting 1 of each in 8 weeks is roughly 0.0024%. You're gonna see streaks. __________________ Digo \| Casual

07-01-2006, 10:08 AM	#15 (permalink)
Tingteng Thread Killer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Portland,OR Posts: 1,207 -7 Internets	Last night our warriors got their first set of wrath shoulders. We had received one set of might shoulders in the last 5 months that went to a person who left the guild soon after. They were happy to say the least. __________________

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07-01-2006, 05:01 AM	#3 (permalink)
Deris Banned Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Rochester, NY Posts: 1,628 -7 Internets	As much as Blizzard swears up and down that loot is not determined by raid ID's, we would keep the same raid ID (back when instances were semi-broken) alive for weeks at a time, and consistently get the same drops with minor variations. If we wanted Mageblades, we got mageblades, if we wanted something new - we'd change the Raid ID up, etc. One night when our instances weren't saving and were being reset repeatedly (we killed Luci 3 times that night) we got the same drops twice in a row from one ID, switched ID's, and got entirely different drops.

07-01-2006, 05:59 AM	#4 (permalink)
Torrid Registered User Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 963	The problem is the sample size is way too small to reach any kind of conclusion. You can go into casinios and see some crazy streaks like roulette wheels landing the same color 30-40 times in a row. Streaks are more common than truely perceived randomness. Personaly, I think that if MMOGs are going to use the RNG to determine drops from a weekly kill, then the loot pool needs to be shallow with similar percentages per item. Otherwise you end up with thunderfury-like scenarios. Nothing like some retard guild that started doing MC 8 months after you did getting a thunderfury before you. Or two.

07-01-2006, 07:22 AM	#7 (permalink)
Ludwigvan Registered User Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 22 +0 Internets	Completely Random. From what I gather though, loot is generated when a monster is spawned. So the moment you zone in and the instance is created, loot is determined. They've said over and over that the RNG they use is not a seeded generator. Raid group voodoo will not change loot. That said, theoretically, if an ID generates the instance, then it's possible that the mobs are all spawned in the same way, and that would explain the same boss drops when the Raid IDs were not reseting properly. This would not be a case of "raid seeding" but a case where the instance spawn determined the ID. Human beings always like to see patterns in static. Any preceived streak is not a result of RNG's not being random, but of human cognitive function looking for a pattern.

07-01-2006, 08:49 AM	#8 (permalink)
Etadanik Banned Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 1,643 +0 Internets	It's possible to see what loots will drop beforehand because numbers generated by a computer are never truly random. If you have access to the seed, then you have access to what will be generated.

07-01-2006, 08:59 AM	#10 (permalink)
Etadanik Banned Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 1,643 +0 Internets	It's the same idea. In this case, the string they use would be considered the seed value. The point is that it's completely possible to guess, beforehand, what numbers will be generated "randomly." Think about it - sure, they can use random strings. But what did they use to generate those strings? Regardless of how well you mask it, pseudo-random generation is still ultimately deterministic.

07-01-2006, 09:44 AM	#13 (permalink)
Etadanik Banned Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 1,643 +0 Internets	Probably. All I'm arguing is that predictability does not mean that the Blizzard random number generator is fubar. It may very well be based on raid IDs, but even if it were not, it'd still be possible to determine what loots will drop on the basis of a few known variables. The regular player might not have access to them, but insiders certainly will.

07-01-2006, 09:50 AM	#14 (permalink)
Ludwigvan Registered User Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 22 +0 Internets	I think there are many more variables at work than we can see. The Raid ID could just be the 3 values before and the 3 values after the string used to generate insance loot. And if all instances are pulling from the same string, that creates quite a bit of randomness not based on group composition or who the leader is. Seems like it would be "random" enough. I don't think it's really all that predictable and the similarities people see in drops are simply patterns in the static.