SoE to publish Vanguard

[Xaen]

Originally Posted by Fammaden

They are in the women's restroom.

Only Turbine in there. Must be the mens.

[Vaclav]

Originally Posted by apm

Vaclav is gonna look really fucking stupid if this game sucks.

Yea, considering my entire opinion of "don't form an opinion yet - it could be good or bad, who the hell really knows at this point" is very polarized one way or the other... at least a few of the junior Ms. Cleo's out there likely will be right, shocking isn't it? I'm screwed no matter what for telling people that no one can safely predict what 6 months will bring, since at least a few will guess right.... damn, damn, damn....

And to the person asking about SWG - nah, I was a Raph Koster hater before it became trendy to hate him - the little bit of my friends talking to me about the game was more than enough punishment already, so I avoided the threads here about it. [and frankly, Sci-Fi normally doesn't do it for me anyhow - although I must admit the recent Tabula Rasa stuff looks intriguing]

[redav]

Originally Posted by Caocao

VG pwns, and I can't find the sigil/micro/sony booth. Any body want to point me in the right direction -.- I've found micro and sony's but which would sigil be under, considering this transfer just took place.

look for a brown booth

[WarderX]

Originally Posted by redav

look for a brown booth

if this is meant to be a joke, this is the funniest thing i've read today.

if not, it still is.

[Soygen]

Originally Posted by redav

look for a brown booth

Hah.

[Vaclav]

Originally Posted by keflex

And yes, volatility isn't measured by "what you and your friends" experienced on the small scale. Just because me and a couple of my neighbors stops buying Nikes means, "uh, oh! Nike shoes is a volatile investment!".

65% retention after 1 year is however and a full 48% having let their accounts lapse at some point is.... but what's the good of letting insider info out that can only serve to possibly get a friend in trouble, and would instantly be disregarded as false since there's obviously no public paper trail for it?

Not saying the numbers above are accurate, not saying I have a friend on the inside, but I very well could and they might be accurate - I've just chosen to present the publicly/semi-publicly available information route b/c tangible evidence is always better than intangible, even if it's far slimmer.

And to the "smart guys" saying that Blizzard has been only heading in one direction - yes, the overall direction is - that doesn't mean there's factors pulling in other directions, everything you could ever dream to invest in has positive and negative factors that serve to form the overall picture - a positive net gain doesn't mean there's any negatives that makes up that net change. Jesus, that's high school Econ crap - it would scare the living hell out of me if I looked at half of your retirement portfolios I'd imagine. [Not that doing HR I've not been scared by many of the portfolios my employees have shared with me....]

[GrobbeeTrull]

Quick, someone tell me what 65% of 6 million is, then tell me what 95% of 500,000 is.

Or, better yet.

6,000,000 -> 1 year at 65% -> 3.9 million (702 mil a year)
3,900,000 -> 1 year at 65% -> 2,535,000 (456.3 mil a year)
2,535,000 -> 1 year at 65% -> 1,647,750 (296.6 mil a year)
1,647,750 -> 1 year at 65% -> 1,071,038 (192.1 mil a year)
1,071,038 -> 1 year at 65% -> 696,174 (125.3 mil a year)

500,000 -> 1 year at 95% -> 475,000 (85.5 mil a year)
475,000 -> 1 year at 95% -> 451,250 (81.2 mil a year)
451,250 -> 1 year at 95% -> 428,678 (77.1 mil a year)
428,678 -> 1 year at 95% -> 407,253 (73.3 mil a year)
407,253 -> 1 year at 95% -> 386,890 (69.6 mil a year)

After 5 years, assuming these steady rates, WoW is still pulling in 80% more subs than Vanguard. Keeping in mind a 180$ a year net per account, and we're looking at the above numbers.

Now I understand you're talking about an "investment" but the bank's "investment" is done as soon as their loan is paid back with any interest, which happens quicker for WoW. Which means they are then free to lend out that money sooner, to make more money for themselves. Banks enjoy that.

Further Edit - it would take Vanguard with that imaginary retention rate an additional 20+ years to have made as much as WoW made in the first 5.

[Caocao]

Originally Posted by redav

look for a brown booth

hey come on, I saw a picture w/ nothing but green and a dash of orange

[Soygen]

Originally Posted by GrobbeeTrull

Quick, someone tell me what 65% of 6 million is, then tell me what 95% of 500,000 is.

Or, better yet.

6,000,000 -> 1 year at 65% -> 3.9 million (702 mil a year)
3,900,000 -> 1 year at 65% -> 2,535,000 (456.3 mil a year)
2,535,000 -> 1 year at 65% -> 1,647,750 (296.6 mil a year)
1,647,750 -> 1 year at 65% -> 1,071,038 (192.1 mil a year)
1,071,038 -> 1 year at 65% -> 696,174 (125.3 mil a year)

500,000 -> 1 year at 95% -> 475,000 (85.5 mil a year)
475,000 -> 1 year at 95% -> 451,250 (81.2 mil a year)
451,250 -> 1 year at 95% -> 428,678 (77.1 mil a year)
428,678 -> 1 year at 95% -> 407,253 (73.3 mil a year)
407,253 -> 1 year at 95% -> 386,890 (69.6 mil a year)

After 5 years, assuming these steady rates, WoW is still pulling in 80% more subs than Vanguard. Keeping in mind a 180$ a year net per account, and we're looking at the above numbers.

Now I understand you're talking about an "investment" but the bank's "investment" is done as soon as their loan is paid back with any interest, which happens quicker for WoW. Which means they are then free to lend out that money sooner, to make more money for themselves. Banks enjoy that.

Further Edit - it would take Vanguard with that imaginary retention rate an additional 20+ years to have made as much as WoW made in the first 5.

Where is this 500k from? Are you just pulling a random number out of your ass for Vanguard subs?

[GrobbeeTrull]

Care to tell me the real number of Vanguard subs?

[Edit] The 500,000 is a number that's been quoted by Brad as "something nice" he'd like to achieve as far as sub-rates go. At least, I think it is. It's in that range.

[Spaniel]

Originally Posted by Caocao

VG pwns, and I can't find the sigil/micro/sony booth. Any body want to point me in the right direction -.- I've found micro and sony's but which would sigil be under, considering this transfer just took place.

Sigil Games Online?
http://www.e3expo.com/attendees/exhi...6&OrderDir=asc

[Jooka]

Ive actually been wondering how much Sigil will actually make per subscription. Since they will be part of the all access pass its hard to imagine they will make as much as a stadard MMO would be making. Im assuming a big portion of there subs will be on that plan.

[Vaclav]

Originally Posted by GrobbeeTrull

Lots of nonsensical math

You're assuming some stuff in there which can be dramatically dissimilar - for example assuming operating costs being identical, and with one growing in dramaticly erratic strides the neccessity to squirrel a hunk aside for increases in network size, staffing, etc. and of course the huge bite in the ass if there's a sudden shrink and subscribe to a philosophy of not laying people off.

Which is a primary reason if they do slip dramatically, to the point where it actually overcomes growth that they'll have HUNDREDS of servers across 5+ locations underused, which means breaking contracts that were likely agreed upon for at least 5 years for the buildings themselves, practically nil resale value on the now unused server hardware, overstaffed maintenance crews, etc - or raising rates and losing some subs to that - or just taking the extra loss.... lose, lose, or lose.

No matter how good the game is, entropy will eventually catch up, and it's gonna be ugly when it does if they've not banked alot to prepare for it.

[Vaclav]

Originally Posted by Jooka

Ive actually been wondering how much Sigil will actually make per subscription. Since they will be part of the all access pass its hard to imagine they will make as much as a stadard MMO would be making. Im assuming a big portion of there subs will be on that plan.

Even if it was as little as $1/sub that went their way, thats still $12/sub per year - $1.2 mill a year if they get the "teeny" amount of 100k subs, which with SOE supplying alot of the hardware, and other fundamentals isn't too horrible assuming their payroll is around the norm for the industry.

Probably safer to assume they'll be getting $2-3/sub and expecting 200-250k though, but even the conservative estimates look like they'd squeek by. (esp. since Station Access is increasing by $3 being announced days before the change was announced)

[Zaniel]

You are fucking deranged if you think any business man would put his hand up to earn a stable $1 mil per year over an erratic $500-700 mil a year. All that stuff about volatility and resources is complete nonsense of the highest order.

If you're onto a good thing, which WoW obviously is, then you spend the money that's needed to make an ass-tonne of money while the going is good. You sound like the sort of manager who worries about how much the rolls of toilet paper in the staff toilet are costing the company while truck loads of lost business opportunity drives by your office window all day.

Defend VG all you want but meaningless snipes at WoW's obviously titanic financial success just makes you look like a sputtering retard.

I'll make an outsiders economic guess for WoW's performance next year to see if I'm worried by its "volatility". My guess is "Up Lots", yes please I'll have some of that.