WoW Open Beta - 500,000 accounts

Rune · 11-12-2004, 12:11 AM

Quote:

500,000+ World of Warcraft Open Beta Test Signups! - Indoflaven on 11/11/04
This past Monday we launched the World of Warcraft open beta test, and by the following day, we had already reached a total of more than 500,000 signups! (PR bullshit cut)

As for the status of the open beta test, more than 40 servers are currently active, and testing is running smoothly, with additional players completing their client installation and joining by the hour. (ditto)

I can't decide whether the final count will be higher or lower, and furthermore can't decide if I really want to play this or EQ2. The more I learn the less I think I know.

Either way I think WoW is swiftly shaping up to be the counterstrike of MMORPGS, and I feel that's not necessarily a good thing.

Wolfe · 11-12-2004, 12:26 AM

A year ago I told people that I thought WoW would have about 1.5 million active subscribers a few months after launching in all regions. In the light of current tendencies I have to raise that estimate to somewhere around 3 million.

The thing with wow is that everyone wants to play it. Eveywhere I go people talk about wow, try that with any other MMORPG and you'll see its pretty hard to find anyone saying they used to play EQ for example.

Cynax · 11-12-2004, 01:09 AM

3 million is a lot. Can an MMO phenomenon that large sustain itself? Or will the player griping reach critical mass and destroy the game?

kudos · 11-12-2004, 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Cynax
3 million is a lot. Can an MMO phenomenon that large sustain itself? Or will the player griping reach critical mass and destroy the game?

If everyone has days like I had today the game will self-destruct from retardation.

Wolfe · 11-12-2004, 01:29 AM

Most things that reach critical mass tends to get noticed one way or the other.

The only MMORPG that reached this funky status I can think of is Lineage 1 in Korea. Imagine how big of a dent WoW would make on the world if it reaches critical mass over the rest of the world. (Or maybe only western world nations.)

Thats alot bigger than 3 million tho, so its unlikely to be done by WoW. But someday alot of people will be playing these games instead of watching TV.

I can see goverments making up new specific laws to deal with the Ebay related economies that grow more than linearly with the size of player populations.

Lefazz · 11-12-2004, 01:38 AM

I'm estimating at least 2 billion active accounts by the end of 2005.

Shinrai · 11-12-2004, 01:48 AM

3 million would be an immense surprise. That would basically cause a re-think of how large the market for MMORPG's could be. But I don't know that people have become that much more tolerant of subscription games. I'd also predict an immense drop off in 3-6 months if it gets those numbers.

Still, I think it'sprobably safe to say that the status of EQ as the dominant American MMORPG is over.

Szlia · 11-12-2004, 03:21 AM

Aye. The real question is not how much suscribers one month after release, but one year after release. 3 millions one year after release would be very surprising.

Twisten · 11-12-2004, 04:25 AM

well the OB is world wide and free so that should mean more demand than there will be for release if they have a decent way of restricted access to america etc

Fennin Ro Blows · 11-12-2004, 04:49 AM

I would tend to agree with the previous post. The Open Beta will contain more people than the numbers of those who will buy and subscribe to the game most likely.

It's possible however, that the percentage of people in Open Beta who won't buy the game and subscribe will be offset by the people who failed to get into even Open Beta somehow.

Kolle · 11-12-2004, 04:59 AM

Free

That explains everything perfectly. Also some people signed up multiple times for various strange reasons.

You could put a stand on the street and offer free balls of fermented shit and people would gladly take them.

As a guess I'd think WoW would at least get several hundred thousand subscriptions by christmas. I think they might swell high for a few months, but I don't know that they would keep going up. I think some players just don't know what to expect with a mmorpg but will buy it anyway and realize they don't want to play for years. They'll play a month and move on.

People are gonna burn through the lvls fast too. You have to wonder exactly how much endgame stuff they have available for people to do. It's gonna need to be meaty.

Wolfe · 11-12-2004, 05:49 AM

Dont underestimate the power of publical approval. WoW is the first MMOG that has been considered "proper to play" by several popular trendsetters.

Such a thing never happened to EverQuest, UO or any other similar game in the western world.

Time will tell who is right and who is wrong but everyone of those 500000 free playing testers knows that a decent game is worth paying for and you cant get WoW through pirating. The people who say they wont pay to play because of this or that reason are a loudmouthed minority of all the testers and can promptly be ignored.

Where I work one of the department bosses will make the company endorse playing WoW for all employees just so we can get a common understanding within the company of how this game plays etc.

The Bog · 11-12-2004, 06:16 AM

Quote:

. Also some people signed up multiple times for various strange reasons.

It's a power thing. People love having more than one of something.

Kiely · 11-12-2004, 06:53 AM

wow.. if it does reach million's of subcribers.. hmm. More factors like.. a big influx of Ebay traders..power guilds etc and theyd probably have to release a Storm hammer version of WoW to satisfy the potential huge amount of there ilk. As far as a profession, WoW has some potential..

Charron · 11-12-2004, 07:08 AM

I bet that there will be more than a million worldwide in the first 6 months. Korea alone might hit 1 million. They are kinda nuts about their games. I think 500k in Korea and 500k in the US is not out of the question. In fact it wouldn't suprise me if we hit 1.5 million within a year or two.

11-12-2004, 03:21 AM	#8 (permalink)
Szlia Conquest Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Switzerland Posts: 4,610 +5 Internets	Aye. The real question is not how much suscribers one month after release, but one year after release. 3 millions one year after release would be very surprising. __________________ -retrosabotage-

11-12-2004, 04:25 AM	#9 (permalink)
Twisten Registered User Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 133 -1 Internets	well the OB is world wide and free so that should mean more demand than there will be for release if they have a decent way of restricted access to america etc __________________ It's all that i can do to sing these stupid songs to you

11-12-2004, 06:53 AM	#14 (permalink)
Kiely He who dares, wins Rodders. Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 1,071 +1 Internets	wow.. if it does reach million's of subcribers.. hmm. More factors like.. a big influx of Ebay traders..power guilds etc and theyd probably have to release a Storm hammer version of WoW to satisfy the potential huge amount of there ilk. As far as a profession, WoW has some potential.. __________________ Ban deep thought.

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11-12-2004, 12:26 AM	#2 (permalink)
Wolfe Registered User Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 29 +0 Internets	A year ago I told people that I thought WoW would have about 1.5 million active subscribers a few months after launching in all regions. In the light of current tendencies I have to raise that estimate to somewhere around 3 million. The thing with wow is that everyone wants to play it. Eveywhere I go people talk about wow, try that with any other MMORPG and you'll see its pretty hard to find anyone saying they used to play EQ for example.

11-12-2004, 01:09 AM	#3 (permalink)
Cynax Registered User Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Fairfax, VA Posts: 74 +0 Internets	3 million is a lot. Can an MMO phenomenon that large sustain itself? Or will the player griping reach critical mass and destroy the game?

11-12-2004, 01:29 AM	#5 (permalink)
Wolfe Registered User Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 29 +0 Internets	Most things that reach critical mass tends to get noticed one way or the other. The only MMORPG that reached this funky status I can think of is Lineage 1 in Korea. Imagine how big of a dent WoW would make on the world if it reaches critical mass over the rest of the world. (Or maybe only western world nations.) Thats alot bigger than 3 million tho, so its unlikely to be done by WoW. But someday alot of people will be playing these games instead of watching TV. I can see goverments making up new specific laws to deal with the Ebay related economies that grow more than linearly with the size of player populations.

11-12-2004, 01:38 AM	#6 (permalink)
Lefazz Registered User Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 1,108	I'm estimating at least 2 billion active accounts by the end of 2005.

11-12-2004, 01:48 AM	#7 (permalink)
Shinrai Registered User Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Melbourne Posts: 594 +0 Internets	3 million would be an immense surprise. That would basically cause a re-think of how large the market for MMORPG's could be. But I don't know that people have become that much more tolerant of subscription games. I'd also predict an immense drop off in 3-6 months if it gets those numbers. Still, I think it'sprobably safe to say that the status of EQ as the dominant American MMORPG is over.

11-12-2004, 04:49 AM	#10 (permalink)
Fennin Ro Blows Registered User Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 37 +0 Internets	I would tend to agree with the previous post. The Open Beta will contain more people than the numbers of those who will buy and subscribe to the game most likely. It's possible however, that the percentage of people in Open Beta who won't buy the game and subscribe will be offset by the people who failed to get into even Open Beta somehow.

11-12-2004, 04:59 AM	#11 (permalink)
Kolle Registered User Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 4,879 -26 Internets	Free That explains everything perfectly. Also some people signed up multiple times for various strange reasons. You could put a stand on the street and offer free balls of fermented shit and people would gladly take them. As a guess I'd think WoW would at least get several hundred thousand subscriptions by christmas. I think they might swell high for a few months, but I don't know that they would keep going up. I think some players just don't know what to expect with a mmorpg but will buy it anyway and realize they don't want to play for years. They'll play a month and move on. People are gonna burn through the lvls fast too. You have to wonder exactly how much endgame stuff they have available for people to do. It's gonna need to be meaty.

11-12-2004, 05:49 AM	#12 (permalink)
Wolfe Registered User Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 29 +0 Internets	Dont underestimate the power of publical approval. WoW is the first MMOG that has been considered "proper to play" by several popular trendsetters. Such a thing never happened to EverQuest, UO or any other similar game in the western world. Time will tell who is right and who is wrong but everyone of those 500000 free playing testers knows that a decent game is worth paying for and you cant get WoW through pirating. The people who say they wont pay to play because of this or that reason are a loudmouthed minority of all the testers and can promptly be ignored. Where I work one of the department bosses will make the company endorse playing WoW for all employees just so we can get a common understanding within the company of how this game plays etc.

11-12-2004, 07:08 AM	#15 (permalink)
Charron Registered User Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 67 +0 Internets	I bet that there will be more than a million worldwide in the first 6 months. Korea alone might hit 1 million. They are kinda nuts about their games. I think 500k in Korea and 500k in the US is not out of the question. In fact it wouldn't suprise me if we hit 1.5 million within a year or two.