[EQ2 and WoW]Is it important to be the first one to launch?

[Sorran]

Maybe I'm just spitballing, or maybe I'm just bored, but with the recent announcements this week from both SOE and Blizzard of a feature being post-poned until after launch (for SOE it was the removal of any PvP at all for launch, and from Blizzard confirmation that Hero classes won't be in until some time post-launch), I got to wondering if it was perhaps an indication that time to market may be more important to both companies than they have been letting on, publicly at least.

Now, I realise that it could be very likely nothing more than coincidence, but allow me to speculate. EQ2 has been firm on a release date of "2004" for some time now, and most people are certainly expecting/hoping WoW to launch by year's end. In fact, the current best guess launch dates for both games put them launching around mid-November. I'm not particularly interested if that is accurate or not, but for argument's sake, let's assume its true.

Although both SOE and Blizzard have said that the game won't be shipped if its not ready, I wonder if either, or perhaps even both, is more worried about being first to launch. Both games are largely targetting MMORPG newbies and more casual gamers - one particular aspect of that type of player is that they are very unlikely to purchase and subscribe to more than one MMORPG. Do you think SOE and Blizzard are worried about the other game launching first and their own sales being impacted as a result? Leaving aside pissing contests over which game you think is better, or whether you think one company or the other is the devil incarnate - I think I'm pretty safe is saying that both games have generated more than enough interest. If they aren't worried about it, should they be?

Do you think it possible (or even likely) that more features from either game may get cut - not necessarily in order to ship the game by some release date but rather to ensure that the game is launched *first*?

Or was this week's information simply a coincidence? Perhaps these cuts/changes were decided upon some time ago but just happened to be confirmed recently?

Cheers,

Sorran.

[doharg]

There are those who will play WoW only, regardless of which releases first. And there are those who will play EQ2 only, regardless. But many people will play which ever hits selves first and both SoE and WoW know that. Companies always consider such things, they have to. Rest assured, someone, somewhere is asking the question, "How many extra units will sell if we release first?" Of course, based on reputation, SoE will pull the trigger long before Blizzard does. EQ2 is at what, 70%? SoE has lunched expansions less complete, and I think Star Wars must have been at less then 50% on day 1. I think Blizzard is just trying to come out "close" to EQ2. Just my opinion.

[Samus Aran]

I'm going to be trying out both. But I can say, for instance, that if WoW comes out, and I've been playing it for some time before EQ2 is released, and am enjoying myself, it would be harder for EQ2 to keep me as a subscriber. Same goes for if WoW comes out later.

But this assumes that I will like either of these games. For some reason, other than SB, no other MMO has been able to capture my attention for very long other than EQ. I wish SB wasn't so gay tho =(

[Merauk]

The real question is which game will convince people to pay $10 a month for 5yrs not which will come out first. In the end analysis being out first isn't really going to determine who wins the race.

[doharg]

Originally posted by Merauk
The real question is which game will convince people to pay $10 a month for 5yrs not which will come out first. In the end analysis being out first isn't really going to determine who wins the race.

While you make a good point; there is a good chance that no game will ever again have a 5 year run like EQ1 has had. If that is the case, then the profit from box sales becomes relatively more important. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. There are old men in expensive suits who will be playing with their adding machines over the next few months, that's for sure.

[Burning_Samurai]

Of course it is important to be first to release as long as it is by a noticeable amount of time (not like a week). Getting your product out first means people will try it first, unless they completely set on something else already. If they like what you put out, they might just stick with it and not give anything a chance. This is simply because they guess what they got is better/ they don't want to stop playing/ don't want to learn another MMORPG/ whatever. Get the customer hooked asap.

I played EQ for four years. I wanted to quit, but WoW wasn’t even close to beta. So, I tried FFXI. The simple fact that it was so different from EQ turned me off in less then a month.

I got into WoW's beta in phase 3, "I’m lovin it", and quit EQ a couple months before that. I admit, I will play WoW over EQ2 no matter what comes first simply because I don't trust SoE anymore. So, while getting the product out first may help in the short run (which could be 4 years), quality is what is needed for long term success.

[Shinrai]

There's sufficient economic incentives that I don't think either game wants the other to get a head start in attracting players. They'll release close together unless one of them screws up somehow. Even if they weren't competing directly both would like to capture the christmas holiday period for themselves.

That said you have to wonder about SOE, they're playing things extremely close to their chests and really starting to limit their chance to gain and respond to beta feedback. It's exciting in terms of keeping the mystery alive mind you.

In addition it would be really good for SOE to get OOW out before both of them, and for it to be well received, to reduce player loss from EQ1.

[Iannis]

There are advantages and disadvantages to either side of the release fence they'd fall on.

Release early, with the risk of your playerbase consuming your content while the competitor sits back some to take a breather and polish up a little more in the beta? or lag an extra month or 2 hoping the first released game, falls apart so you can pick up the pieces?

People are already smacking high levels fast in WoW, there are threads about how people are burning out with and are bored with WoW, there are extensive spoiler sites providing information. Although I don't doubt it'll be more prepared for release than EQ2 would be...gamers are fickle.

If EQ2 tries to shove itself out the door without the year-long+ beta WoW has had they'd nab the people looking for a change, but if it doesn't have content and has not implemented crucial portions of the game then Blizzard can get ready to try their hand at getting an EverQuest-esque stranglehold on the MMO market...

for at a year at least before Vanguard is prepared for beta, which is the only real fantasy-genre competitor I see on the horizon for whoever wins this time around.

[Jait]

Originally posted by Merauk
The real question is which game will convince people to pay $10 a month for 5yrs not which will come out first. In the end analysis being out first isn't really going to determine who wins the race.

Say it again. And repeat it one more time slowly for the kiddies.

[Kolle]

I've been bored as shit for years now. Ever since SoL i've been ready for a better mmorpg.

I've been more curious about WoW, but I'm going to buy whichever comes out first. I can only play so much D2 and CoH before stabbing my eyes with sporks.

Unless I absolutely hate whichever one I buy, I won't try the other one for at least a few months.

So if EQ2 or WoW sucks ass for long term, the other game can expect my money by Feb. That is if they release around Nov.

If the first one I play is fun and I make good friends...well then the other company isn't getting my money. There's a lot of people in my boat, I'm sure. I'm betting the business suits want their game out before the other.

[Kreugen]

They both have enough of a built-in following to survive one coming out before the other I believe.

That said, damn right its important. They'd be lying if they said otherwise.

[Fabinusar]

Defintely important for people who are looking for a game to play now and who are not set in either camp. If one comes out first they can possibly hold the fence sitters on one side.

I'll likely try both of them and go with what is more fun and feels like it will last. Currently playing CoH and, while it's fun, I can see it getting repetitious. It's almost like AO but without some of the common dungeon areas (hazard zones just don't feel like common dungeons). Great for casual play; log in, smack some shit and log off.

My friends have less of an interest in WoW due the cartoon look - personally, I think it's cool looking. If the gameplay and content is enough to keep people from disliking the fact that it looks like they're watching a saturday morning cartoon (again, I think it looks cool) then it could steal some people who are sitting on the fence but have both feet on the EQ2 side.

edit: call me a masochist, but it was quite an excellent feeling clearing Vex Thal for the first time.

[EQ2sucks]

I think it's more important for Sony to get EQ2 out first than it is for Blizzard to get WoW out first, and on top of that, I think Sony will release EQ2 first. But, Sony is taking a risk. If EQ2 isn't really finished and it sucks, they might lose more potential long term customers to WoW. Sony's best bet right now is to keep plugging along at EQ2 and making it as complete as possible, while shooting for a release date 2-4 weeks before WoW.

[Ukerric]

As said, there are people who are waiting for EQ2, and people waiting for WoW. That's like an election: nothing you're going to do will change their opinion, it's a waste of energy (and cash).

The real battlefield are those who are undecided. And the window of opportunity is small. Both games can launch within two weeks of each other.

Wait further, and you've lost the initiative - most people waiting for "the next thing" will start on the first one, and will not switch out until at least their first month is over, or, more probably, they've played 2-3 months and decided it's not for them.

That's the situation. If one of the game go gold, the other has to go gold almost immediately, or it's probably better to wait 3 additional months, and snatch the first wave of discontents (which there will be, because, of course, the "other" game isn't as good as ours).


Matter are of course complicated by the christmas shopping season. Most retailers will commit their shelves by early december, which means wholesalers will lock their orders by late november. If your game's launch has not been confirmed by mid-november, it won't ship until january next year, because shelf space will already be spoken for, stuff ordered, and few (if any) retailers will pull out things they've paid to make room for another game.

Blizzard might stretch things a little more than SOE (retailers know about Blizzard games. I would say they probably put more trust in Blizzard's sales potential than SOE's), but not by much. They have also the advantage of hardware (see the thread on hardware): it's easier to convince people to play your game with their current computer than to say "Recommended: 1G RAM - 256Mb video - 3Ghz CPU".

But, basically, both companies face the same dilemma: decide by november 1 if they're going to launch this year. With the other's decision weighting almost as much as the state of the beta.

[Staberinde]

Originally posted by Merauk
The real question is which game will convince people to pay $10 a month for 5yrs not which will come out first. In the end analysis being out first isn't really going to determine who wins the race.

SOE have said the average lengh of time of a subscriptionin EQ is about a year. EQ has been going for 5 years not because everyone has stayed with it for 5 years but because its done very well in bringing new players to the game over the years.

To say that whichever game is released first will not impact the success of either game is simply naive. It wont necesserally make the difference between "Winning" and "Losing" but if the competitition is close then whoever releases first may very well tip the scales.

Last large scale opinion poll i saw of WoW vs EQ2 was on gamespy a while back with about 80% in favor of WoW, so EQ2 has a lot of work to do to convince the public its the better game. Admittedly that was a few months ago and there been a lot of publicity in last few months for EQ2 so numbers could very well have changed since.