Health Care Thread II

[Frax]

Originally Posted by GrobbeeTrull2.0

Everything I'm hearing on all of the news websites is how the housing market is improving, jobless claims are slowing, etc etc.

What excuse will be given when the economy recovers? "It would have done it faster had Obama not intervened!" Prove it.

Claiming Obama's polices have caused economic recovery is no more valid than someone claiming that if elected Cynthia McKinney obviously would have made the economy recover faster than either McCain or Obama. No one can prove or disprove that either.

[GrobbeeTrull2.0]

So then I expect you to continue that train of thought and never blame anything on Obama again, because we can't tell if it was Obama's fault for really anything he helps to do?

[Haus]

The point of the economic recovery, as Obama made in the graphs they've already put out there, is that the economy would recover with or without the stimulus. It was just a matter of how fast. Now, reality isn't trending with their projections. I'm not saying a Republican plan would have done anything faster or slower. I'm saying that the level to which their estimations and projections are off should give cause to question any economic forecast they put forward until they can prove where they went wrong, admit what they did wrong in their estimates, and show that they aren't doing more of it.

But when Joe Biden is the only person in the administration that will admit they were wrong... you have problems.

Also, when you set up a scenario in which no matter what happens you can claim victory then the victory claimed will not hold much weight. That goes for either side.

[Arative]

Originally Posted by GrobbeeTrull2.0

Everything I'm hearing on all of the news websites is how the housing market is improving, jobless claims are slowing, etc etc.

What excuse will be given when the economy recovers? "It would have done it faster had Obama not intervened!" Prove it.

Home sales are recovering, home prices are down 15% from this time last year. So its a real buyers market right now but that doesn't really help people that are underwater in their mortgages.

[Arbitrary]

Any statistical improvements in my area regarding the housing market I would attribute to an influx of really great deals due to people being fucked over. There are still piles upon piles of "for sale" signs and the prices are ridiculous with ginormous taxes. There is just this entire tier of home that people cannot unload because their expectations are linked to an era that no longer exists. I can't count how many houses I've yoinked the paperwork for (the little handouts under the for sale sign) that were just a flat out worse proposition than renting. That doesn't even count the sea of million dollar (ha) lake house summer homes that people are trying to ditch.

[Soriak]

Originally Posted by Haus

Using this logic there is no way they could have ever been wrong around about it, because no matter what happens they have this magical and mostly unaccountable number of "jobs saved". They can always say "well it would have been worse" but have no way to back it up.

Yep, that's a political problem. In 5-10 years, we can look back and get a better idea of what worked and what didn't. Too late for politics, but it will help inform future policy decisions. I would just ignore the figure for jobs created and/or saved - it's way too early to estimate the impact of the stimulus. It's no surprise that Democrats will claim the stimulus worked and Republicans will claim it only delayed the recovery. Best to ignore the politics of it - not like any politician is going to provide some major insight.

That being said, it's not an argument not to have a stimulus or a sign that it did or did not work. Maybe it would be an argument to get rid of cash and use only electronic payments - then we would know what's going on in real-time instead of being 6 months behind and relying on estimates.

[Lyenae]

Originally Posted by Soriak

Too late for politics, but it will help inform future policy decisions.

Lol, no, it won't help future policy decisions. We are repeating the exact same mistakes of the 30's. This shit is just beginning, the technicals are pointing to the possibiliy we will have the real crash in ~October.

[Soriak]

Originally Posted by Lyenae

Lol, no, it won't help future policy decisions. We are repeating the exact same mistakes of the 30's. This shit is just beginning, the technicals are pointing to the possibiliy we will have the real crash in ~October.

We're either repeating the same mistakes, or learning from them - depends on whom you listen to.

I think there has been remarkably little in terms of protectionism around the world. It would be very popular to make those same changes again and free trade approval is probably going to hit rock bottom before this is over... but so far, just about nothing.

We don't have to deal with make-work programs, because there's now an actual social support system - unemployment benefits are huge in feathering off the slump of high unemployment. No price controls either. New is the regulation for some financial products, but again it looks very restrained so far. Basically, set up a clearing house and do it in the open instead of under the table where nobody knows what's going on. Again, very moderate responses given the popular outcry against the financial industry.

Looking at the great depression, government spending did seem to improve the economy. The second crash came after the programs were massively scaled back and taxes were raised for fear of the growing budget deficit. The following recovery came with WW2, when the government went on an insane spending spree. I think it's at least reasonable to conclude that government spending did help and simply ended too early. (along with the previously mentioned increase in protectionism around the world) If so, the deficit hawks would be the ones repeating the previous mistakes. I guess we'll find out before too long.

[Lleauaric~EW]

Originally Posted by Frax

Claiming Obama's polices have caused economic recovery is no more valid than someone claiming that if elected Cynthia McKinney obviously would have made the economy recover faster than either McCain or Obama. No one can prove or disprove that either.

Except for the fact that you morons are claiming he was going to "ZOMG DESTROY" the economy.

[Haus]

And... now time for the payoffs to start...

TheHill.com - White House eases stimulus lobbyist restrictions

In March, President Obama announced that government officials would not be allowed to consider the views of lobbyists regarding specific stimulus projects unless the requests are put in writing. The materials also had to be posted on an agency’s website within three business days of receipt. Lobbyists have said that the policy was one more example of the administration's disdain for their industry.

Now, the just-revised rules will allow government personnel to accept meetings and calls from federally registered lobbyists on the implementation of stimulus projects.

Ah, feel that slope? Just the right kind of slippery....

[Lyenae]

Originally Posted by Soriak

I think it's at least reasonable to conclude that government spending did help and simply ended too early.

Help in what way? Help 'soften' the blow at the cost of deficits, and a massive resitrbutioin of wealth? Sure. Help the economy recover? No.

[Frax]

Originally Posted by Lleauaric~EW

Except for the fact that you morons are claiming he was going to "ZOMG DESTROY" the economy.

ZOMG

[Soriak]

Originally Posted by Lyenae

Help the economy recover? No.

You sound quite sure about this... what do you know that nobody else knows? It's pretty easy to slip into a deflationary spiral: government cuts costs, which means firing people. People lose spending power, thus forcing businesses to cut jobs. Private investment didn't pick up the slack - it plummeted as investors lost money in the market. And with fewer people buying stuff, there's more unused capacity and hence even fewer reasons to invest in anything.

Who, if not the government, would break that cycle?

[Etoille]

Originally Posted by GrobbeeTrull2.0

Everything I'm hearing on all of the news websites is how the housing market is improving, jobless claims are slowing, etc etc.

What excuse will be given when the economy recovers? "It would have done it faster had Obama not intervened!" Prove it.

Well its the same shit they did back in February in reverse.

"Obamas only been in office a month and look at the economy its tanking". "Everytime Obama opens his mouth the economy takes a dive."

Now its July (funny, someone should pull my posts from back then and look at damn near the EXACT time frame that I predicted would be the indicator of success/failure of his policies. not you Grobbee, but someone should***) and the same people that said that Obama tanked the awesome economy Bush left us with after a month in office are now saying "well 6 months doesn't mean anything, it would have worked itself out."

So Obama gets all the credit for failure, but none for success.

And you (again not you Grobbee) republicfucktardicans wonder why people look at you and go "youre a fucking retard just shut the fuck up".


***I believe I predicted late July to late August....I will be, as I said back then, reserving my opinions on his success/failures vis a vis the economy until then.

[Lyenae]

You mean what do I know that people on lame ass financial TV shows don't talk about?

There's nothing wrong with deflation, or going down a deflationary spiral after a huge inflationary spiral. People win big time. Lower tax brackets would lead to more money to spend, people would straight up pay for goods instead of being raped by debt interest, retired people with fixed incomes would become bigger consumers, bank credit would be used more on commerical investment instead of consumption debt, etc.

The losers are consumption debtors, and the biggest loser of them all during deflation, is the one with the biggest non-profitable debt... the government. Less money from taxes makes the deficits, and other bloated services, that much harder to pay. That is why it will do anything/everything to avoid deflation.

The government can do many things to help recovery. Spending money it doesn't have is not one of them. Providing more unprofitable jobs isn't one of them either. Lighten spending, lower taxes, pass and enforce legislation that encourages competition and fair trade.