Is Pakistan Lost?

[Tripamang]

Haven't really seen a lot of discussion about the situation in Pakistan which seems to be escalating as of late. For people who haven't read up on it, more or less there is a region in northern Pakistan that borders with Afghanistan that is an like an independent region from from the rest of the country. They have their own laws (sharia/islamic) and for the most part a minimal government structure.

The taleban have been abusing this region to use it as a recruitment and power base for their fight for Afghanistan. The Pakistan government gave them a choice about a year ago between stopping the cross border attacks into Afghanistan and receive sharia law or the government would be forced intervene with the military. They accepted it but the cross border attacks didn't stop and now due to US pressure the army is now raiding the northern territory to regain control.

Now you have what looks to be a united front for a fight for the heart of Pakistan. With the government on one side and the militants on the other. This has a lot of potential to spiral out of control, especially with the Pakistan downplaying the threat as a non united insurrection in a northern province vs how the media is playing it, a unified rebellion.

Links~
BBC NEWS | South Asia | Q&A: Pakistan's Swat offensive
BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan conflict map

It should be pretty interesting to see where this goes. A highly unstable Pakistan would likely end in a US led invasion to secure their nuclear arms or it could turn into a long standing battle for the northern province.

Anyone else want to chime in?

[chaos]

It's hard to know what is really happening. Their "President" says everything is fine. The media is screaming bloody murder, but they've lost pretty much all credibility. I think most Americans just stop paying attention in situations like these. It's impossible to really know what's going on, which is unfortunate because I think that's part of what led to the acceptance following the Iraqi invasion.

[Vinen]

Originally Posted by chaos

It's hard to know what is really happening. Their "President" says everything is fine. The media is screaming bloody murder, but they've lost pretty much all credibility. I think most Americans just stop paying attention in situations like these. It's impossible to really know what's going on, which is unfortunate because I think that's part of what led to the acceptance following the Iraqi invasion.

Our Media Lies
Our Military Lies
Our President Lies
Their President Lies

What is there to listen to? It's impossible to make informed decisions on the information we get.

[Drave]

It's hell going into summer, not the best time of year for humping all over hell and back.

Pakistan : Weather Underground

North-West Frontier Province - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[Chips]

I think a lot of people blow it off because Pakistan is a pretty advanced nation compared to the rest of the world(Nukes, 5th largest army, indoor plumping)

While I'd hate to see terrorists get hold of nukes I think Pakistan will be okay when they realize that India isn't trying to get them and wreck some towelhead ass.

[Snugglebear]

I think there's less chance of a stalemate because a ceasefire/peace deal was already attempted in the Swat valley. Pakistan agreed to Sharia law in Swat in exchange for peace, but the Taliban expanded out of Swat and began overtaking other settlements. Now maybe Pakistan (and its army) will realize that peace is not an option and lose some sympathy for the Taliban's cause.

The excuse is always that Pakistan's army is designed to fight India, not fight extremists. You see this crazy shit where the army sits in bunkers or stays out of the way, despite outnumbering Taleban forces 5 to 1 or more. I don't know if it's because the army doesn't want to kill civilians or the army has too many elements that are sympathetic to the extremists or the army just wants to make the civilian leadership look powerless.

[ChewieTobbacca]

The army making the civilian powers look powerless is the most likely reason. They do have a pretty big and powerful army, and they are against extremists (thats why Musharraf was in power for a while too)

From what I've scene, it reminds me of Turkey where the military has ultimate power over the civilian sector to fight extremism.

[PosterOfStuff]

I would believe the religious front the extremists hide behind has made it difficult for the government to gain total support in a move against the Taleban. Added to that the government needs to be seen to be acting in the countries own self interest, not a foreign powers like the USA.

The Taleban is just like any other extremist group for example Hamas, and just like Hamas they are finding that being a group of extremists its hard if not impossible to control your members. Hence from what I have seen reported the continuing action against the government (ambushing government/army convoys) has given them the support and the example to use that they are indeed working in Pakistans best interests.

I don't think Pakistan will ever move forward or ever be capable of doing anything while the Taleban, and other groups are allowed to exist. What will be worse is the fact that India will just grow in power and prestige while Pakistan falls to the wayside.

Unless the Pakistan government are a bunch of retards they must realise this.

[whatsamattau]

Whew, no. I found it.

[Chanur]

A big part of the problem is much of the populous does not want to kill what is essentially their own people. So they have in the past been having trouble.

Another thing to consider is, I'm not sure India will sit idly by while the tali ban takes control of Pakistan's nuke's.

[Cathan]

Originally Posted by Vinen

Our Media Lies
Our Military Lies
Our President Lies
Their President Lies

What is there to listen to? It's impossible to make informed decisions on the information we get.

As civilians there are no decisions for us to make. We direct jack and shit when it comes to foreign policy.

If you had said something like it's impossible to draw any conclusions based on accurate information I could agree with that but we aren't dictating anything going on over there.

I hope the Pakistani government pulls through this and our relations with that government hold up. Last thing we need is chaos surrounding nukes.

[Tuco]

How pissed are the Taliban at India?

[chaos]

I think that's one thing that everyone should agree with, no matter what Pakistan has to hold up. If we have to prop them up by force, so be it.

[Tangurena]

And it appears that Pakistan is spending lots of money enlarging their nuclear weapons production facilities.

Sats Show Pakistan Super-Sizing Its Nuclear Weapons Complex | Danger Room | Wired.com

[Dr. Rubicite]

Originally Posted by Chanur

A big part of the problem is much of the populous does not want to kill what is essentially their own people. So they have in the past been having trouble.

/shrug. Every Pakistani I know, and the majority in polls, don't consider Pashtunis their own people and are perfectly fine with the Pakistani army invading/killing the Pashtun tribes. IMO the bigger problem is that the Pakistanis don't want to commit any resources to doing so, because they are focused on India instead.

Originally Posted by Cathan

I hope the Pakistani government pulls through this and our relations with that government hold up. Last thing we need is chaos surrounding nukes.

I can understand why you say this, but personally I hope Musharraf doesn't last. There won't be any chance at democracy in Pakistan as long as he's in power. If you're worried that islamist groups will take over, that seems highly unlikely. Outside of the NWFP, no islamist party enjoys any kind of broad support. The biggest religious parties (not even Islamist, mind you, but religious) don't even bring in 10% of the vote in Pakistan as a whole. People got the chance to live in an islamist paradise under General Zia ul-Haqq and aren't eager to repeat the experience.

Originally Posted by Tuco

How pissed are the Taliban at India?

They're not. As it stands, the Taliban haven't made any move, or even any comments, against India. In the past, Pakistan has tried to convince them that India is a pagan nation colluding with the Zionists, but Taliban didn't buy it. Since they don't consider India to be a decadent, colonialist, zionist regime, they don't have an interest in fighting the Indians. On a larger scale, India actually has surprisingly good relations with militant Islamists outside of Pakistan (particularly Iran).

Originally Posted by Snugglebear

I think there's less chance of a stalemate because a ceasefire/peace deal was already attempted in the Swat valley. Pakistan agreed to Sharia law in Swat in exchange for peace, but the Taliban expanded out of Swat and began overtaking other settlements. Now maybe Pakistan (and its army) will realize that peace is not an option and lose some sympathy for the Taliban's cause.

The Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) has always been a farily autonomous region. The Pashtunis are a different ethnicity from Pakistanis (they're Afghans), don't speak the same language, and are considered by the Pakistanis as religious radicals, backwards, and barbarians. Many people there want to secede and form their own country ("Pashtunistan"). Outside of the NWFP, Pakistanis don't have much sympathy for the Taliban. Of course they have their homegrown terrorist groups that they do like...

Originally Posted by Snugglebear

The excuse is always that Pakistan's army is designed to fight India, not fight extremists. You see this crazy shit where the army sits in bunkers or stays out of the way, despite outnumbering Taleban forces 5 to 1 or more. I don't know if it's because the army doesn't want to kill civilians or the army has too many elements that are sympathetic to the extremists or the army just wants to make the civilian leadership look powerless.

There is no civilian leadership in Pakistan. General Musharraf is dictator and still quite popular with the army. The main reason he doesn't want to fight them is because he knows it will be a Chechnya type of situation for him. Furthermore, fighting a geurilla war on the enemies home turf will tie up huge resources, is hard to do, and will likely make the Pakistanis look weak and incompetent to India.

Keep in mind, also, that the regular Pakistani army doesn't really have anything to do with fighting in the NWFP. That's all delegated to the "Frontier Corps". The FC is mostly recruited from tribal areas and aren't given much in the way of support or weapons (I don't personally know what they carry, but I recall seeing an article which described it as "sandals and WWII era bolt-action rifles). They basically police the region against not only terrorists, but also the drug trade, illegal immigration, etc. However, up until a couple of years ago, they managed to keep the Taliban contained, so nobody really gave a shit.