Campaign Strategy

[Banal]

So...yeah, partisan circle jerks are pretty terrible reading whether it's Khorum or Badass leering at you creepily from the other side of the circle while you desperately try to think of anything else.

I thought I'd make a topic on something that I'm actually interested in. So if you don't mind, please refrain from any discussion of the issues or the qualifications of the candidates themselves. This thread is for discussion of the actual maneuvering that each campaign is engaging in, i.e. what their global or specific strategy is (from what you can conjecture) and how successful it has been or will be and why.

Speculation is, of course, acceptable, but it'd be cool if you could support your speculation in a reasonable fashion. Failure to keep it neutral will cause me to throw up my hands in frustration and emo rage silently while I refuse to post because you're to dumb to live and don't deserve my wisdom.

My thoughts: McCain goes negative.

At first I thought this tact was pretty stupid. Clinton went negative against Obama, and while she got a temporary bump, it ended up biting her in the ass because Obama was beautiful about it.

Negative ads do work, but they have to land for them to work. Bill Clinton for example, got more shit thrown at him than any president in recent memory, but he always came out of it smelling fresh. If they don't stick, then you get bit in the ass by the backlash like Clinton did.

After I thought about it a while though, I realized that McCain isn't interested in just smearing Obama. He's trying to draw the foul. If McCain goes negative, people will shrug, because that's his reputation (bulldog, etc) anyway. However, if he manages to draw Obama into a negative campaign, he punctures the clean image that's gotten Obama so far. In fact, he doesn't even have to get Obama to go negative. He just has to convince the public that the Dems are going negative. On election day, the difference won't matter.

That's why Palin has made such an impact. She's a gigantic lightning rod, which complements this strategy perfectly.

Your thoughts?

[Gilgamel]

I think from a political strategy standpoint Palin was the absolute optimum pick. She brings the base home, injects some of that pizzaz Obama has had into the Republican side, gives them a superstar for the future, and makes the democrats whack themselves over the head with their own candidates inexperience every time they go after her. There is no downside, assuming she doesn't shit the bed.

Charles Krauthammer is conservative but this article explains exactly what is going on:
RealClearPolitics - Articles - Obama's Altitude Sickness

Essentially Obama has been riding the cult of personality for the last eighteen months. The wave kind of broke over the last six weeks, and now Palin has stepped in and picked up right where he left off. She's getting all the media, she's the one people are discussing at work, and now she is the "celebrity". Krauthammer ends by saying Obama had to make it work for two years, but Palin has to only make it last another seven weeks. I think his analysis is right on the money.

[Arbitrary]

I initially thought she was a terrible pick until I saw her being used.

I can't believe Obama would criticize a woman with a family! In a small town! With a son in the military! HOW DARE HE. She's teflon.

[Snugglebear]

They're always golden until you see what a mongoloid does to the carpet in the White House. WTF.

The 'draw the foul' strategy sounds like a lame one. Obama has already said that he isn't going to go down like Kerry did. Obama is supposedly going to fight back against 'swiftboating.'

The question is, whose VP will sink the ship first: Obama's Biden or McCain's Palin? Geraldine Ferraro 'united the base' for a little while, too, until some financing funny business brought her down. Palin looks to be going that way.

[t0nic]

At the moment the Palin pick was genius in a bottle just purely as a political pick. It has nothing to do with her policies but purely because she is the perfect magnet to take the issue away from McCain's political stances.

McCain is going for personality versus policy and Palin is a perfect diversion from policy. She is cute, she embodies the average woman of small town America. What better way to shift focus from McCain's policies? Its been obvious he is playing up the POW and character issues lately and the Palin pick goes very well with personality angle.

Whether McCain wins or not its a mighty impressive pick and a great way to fight Obama. Move the realm of the discussion toward one's character and McCain is winning that fight... I mean he is a freaking POW who can argue with his patriotism and love of America?

Well that is the line they really driving toward.

[Gilgamel]

My question is how does Obama get back on form? I never saw the brilliance of the Palin pick until recently so I'm no political expert, but I don't see what he can do. If he goes negative he loses his claim of hope and change. If he attacks her inexperience he is fighting #1 vs #2 and he draws people toward McCain's experience argument, which is bad for him. If he starts getting more in depth on his policy arguments he alienates people who support him as an icon for change but who really aren't comfortable with semi-socialist government intervention.

With all that said though I still think he wins, because his turnout machine has been an unprecedented success. Don't be surprised if he wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote, because I think they'll do what they have to do to win the states that matter.

[Banal]

Originally Posted by Gilgamel

My question is how does Obama get back on form? I never saw the brilliance of the Palin pick until recently so I'm no political expert, but I don't see what he can do. If he goes negative he loses his claim of hope and change. If he attacks her inexperience he is fighting #1 vs #2 and he draws people toward McCain's experience argument, which is bad for him. If he starts getting more in depth on his policy arguments he alienates people who support him as an icon for change but who really aren't comfortable with semi-socialist government intervention.

With all that said though I still think he wins, because his turnout machine has been an unprecedented success. Don't be surprised if he wins the electoral college and loses the popular vote, because I think they'll do what they have to do to win the states that matter.

He needs to have an Obama moment and deliver an address to the public. You know, one that will spark their imagination.

[Smocca]

I think McCain's main strategy right now is to create chaos, stay on the offensive (or more importantly keep Obama defensive) and saturate the media will nothing issues.

Take the lipstick thing for example. It didn't matter that it was ridiculous and that probably 99% of people laughed it off, because its a nothing issue either way. What it did was eat up 1 to 2 days of media time and force the Obama campaign to get off track for at least that long too.

Palin, is insanely popular but a lot of that is built on false pretenses. Most of her supporters know her from her speech at the RNC which didn't supply a lot of information about her positions on issues or the reality of what she was saying. What people like is her personality and that her image is easy to relate to. The longer the McCain campaign can keep things chaotic, keep Obama on the defensive, and keep the media talking about lipstick the better their campaign looks because that image won't be tested.

My 2 cents.

[gn0me]

Obama needs to keep attacking McCain on the issues and linking him with Bush and his failed policies. He needs to completely disconnect his comments from Palin, since everytime he opens his mouth about her it becomes Palin-palooza for a day and further adds to her celebrity. He needs to swarm the swing states with tough, opportunistic attack ads but not get too dirty. He can't stray too far or reinvent himself like McCain did at this point or he will lose.

I think the "Palin effect" is already starting to wear off. The polls are leveling off from the huge bounce McCain got last week to a dead tie, which is still a gain for McCain, but expected as he brought the unsure religious/conservative base in. Palin will keep her share of supporters, mainly hard conservatives, but reasonable people in the middle are becoming aware of the flat out lies and hypocrisy she and McCain are spouting on a daily basis. She is clearly out of her league at this point on the issues, and that's gonna take some time to get caught up on. Palin is bound to make more gaffes if her ABC interview was any indication of things to come.

I mean, McCain got called out as a liar and booed on the fucking View of all places this morning. Most media outlets have jumped on the whole hypocrisy/liar angle for the past several days. McCain's negativity and hypocrisy are already starting to wear thin and tarnish his honorable old "maverick" image. It's hard to run on a reformer ticket when you're playing dirty politics and your VP is guilty of the misdeeds you're railing against.

Obama has lost some attention, but I believe this election will refocus on the issues in the coming weeks. He has lost his momentum, however, and will need to gradually build that back up by sticking to his guns over the next month until debate time, at which point I believe he will outshine McCain on the issues (and Biden will pwn Palin).

It will be a tough election, things are about dead even, but many states can still swing either way. Obama should use the Clintons in OH and PA to shore up support there. If he wins those two states McCain is done. I still give the advantage to Obama for superior ground game and the fact that a lot of these polls don't take into consideration his massive support from younger voters. We shall see.

[Banal]

reasonable people in the middle are becoming aware of the flat out lies and hypocrisy

false pretenses

etc...

Don't shit up my thread you fucks. Keep your value judgements to yourself. Tell me what you think about the tactics.

[gn0me]

Originally Posted by Banal

etc...

Don't shit up my thread you fucks. Keep your value judgements to yourself. Tell me what you think about the tactics.

Shut up asshole. That is what I think of the tactics. McCain and Palin have been noted by numerous media sources as making false statements (lies if you will) regarding the issues. They are running an image campaign, and their campaign manager has admitted that. Obama is running an issues campaign and has been reluctant to go negative. I believe in the end the people will side on the issues.

[Smocca]

I didn't mean it as a pass of judgement like that. Obama lies too no doubt about it. I'm just saying there isn't a lot of information out there about her in most peoples minds and the information they do have is directly from her in the form of that RNC speech. Of course she will speak positively of herself and even bend the truth to do so.

Deception is a part of political strategy on both sides. Obama does it with McCain's stance on supporting the troops, giving tax breaks to oil companies, and exaggerating how much he will tax health insurance benefits.

[Gilgamel]

I actually think he should give up the ghost on linking McCain to Bush. No matter what the record indicates McCain is regarded as his own man, and that maverick image is set in stone with a lot of the electorate. Picking Palin only added to that.

Somehow he needs to convince everyone his ideas are better than McCain's, and that he is strong enough to lead. The first one he can manage I think, but he's going to have a hard time with the second one unless he shows he's tough enough to take McCain on man to man. I think refusing the town hall tour around the country after initially agreeing to it reeks of chickenshit and is his single largest mistake of this campaign.

[Banal]

Originally Posted by gn0me

Shut up asshole. That is what I think of the tactics. McCain and Palin have been noted by numerous media sources as making false statements (lies if you will) regarding the issues. They are running an image campaign, and their campaign manager has admitted that. Obama is running an issues campaign and has been reluctant to go negative. I believe in the end the people will side on the issues.

You can post whatever you want, and I can tell you that you're a bitch for bringing your partisan bullshit into this. I don't give a fuck if they lie because they all lie, idiot. Using words like hypocrisy implies a value judgment that draws opposing value judgments and there's already a thread you can shit yours out in.

I'll disagree with your statement that Obama is running an issues campaign because I don't see any evidence of it. In fact, I think it's a widely held opinion on both sides of the aisle that Obama's campaign has been successful largely due to the image he has so successfully conveyed. I also feel that this choice was astute in its perception of what actually motivates people. Image will always be more successful in mass communication than message. Image fucking sells.

Both campaigns rely heavily on image. It's been a staple of both party's arsenal since JFK (Dems) and Reagan (GOP). I think it's fair to say that the GOP has the initiative in conveying their image right now, which has left the Obama campaign reacting. If Obama wants to sieze the initiative back, he'll reacquaint the public with the confident, inspiring Obama that made him the frontrunner originally.

[Sharmai]

Actually I think Gilgamel is right in that Obama doesn't have a large variety of ways in which he can attack Palin. The republican spin machine is in full force and any action will result in being an attack or being a comparison of Obama to Palin instead of Obama to McCain.

Instead I think toning down his campaign and letting McCain getting all the spotlight is a good idea. Think about it. What happened to Britney spears after everyone got tired of hearing in the lime light? She started making mistakes and the media went ape shit.

Obama took the highlight and then when people got tired of hearing about him he got taken down to.

Now guess whose in the spotlight? She has to maintain the spotlight, scrutiny, and all the fame without making to many mistakes for the next what 7 weeks? Its possible yes but shes no Obama.

Already we can see the republican campaign making some serious gaffs like adds against child education of sexual predators. Lies about the bridge to nowhere. Barely existence willingness to talk to the media. Complete lack of talking about the issues. The fact that its obvious she was a political pick not not a experience pick compounds the issue. In time Obama may only have to keep his mouth shut and just keep talking about the issues eventually the republicans are going to bring themselves down.





Now on the converse side if the republicans stop throwing out lies and start talking about the issues then maybe Palin's fame can run through election day but then what is she going to talk about? She has almost nothing on issues TO talk about. If shes not careful when shes talking from her script she will look dumb and be crucified. And we all know she has to avoid talking to the media as much as possible because she will make gaffs against a media starving to be the center of attention and be the first ones to bring the next star down.