Clinton and Obama

[Sunder]

Originally Posted by chaos

What is a brokered convention anyway? I mean really, "deals must be made" is a little vague for my Democracy needs.

Basically you have to convince delegates who voted for one candidate in the first round of voting at the convention to change their mind and vote for someone else. They aren't going to change their vote for free.

[Leto Eu`Acumen]

Originally Posted by Duppin

I have to say, I still don't really get the whole superdelegate thing.

Cliff notes:

There are a total of 4,049 delegates available in the Democratic primary. You need half + 1 (2,025) to win.

60% of that 4,049 come from state primaries and caucuses. That is what the delegates are winning now.

40% of the delegates (796 total) are individuals. Party leaders, party insiders, many are elected members (senators and house reps etc), and they each get a vote at the Convention.

The idea is that these "party loyalists" are there as a backstop against anything stupid that might have happened when Joe Public had their vote. These party loyalists are supposed to be a kind of "insurance" for the good of the party.


I don't much care for the system, I don't agree that 1 of their votes should count as much as 10,000 (or god knows how many this year) of the publics votes.

But they do.

One candidate or the other HAS to get 2,025 total delegates. Once a candidate does, their General Election and all the legal doors that opens can officially begin.

To get 2,025 delegates JUST from the state delegates, you really have to have a front runner running the table from the very start (as Clinton expected to do once upon a time.) When two candidates are splitting the vote however and 40% of the delegate total don't even vote until August.....well, then you have a problem.

One two things has to happen. Either one candidate steps out of the way leaving the remaining candidate standing as the de facto winner. Or you go to the Convention and fight shit out one delegate at a time until one or the other gets to the 2,025 mark.

Technically, popular vote never enters the equation. Ever. The only place the popular vote matters at all is in the minds of the super delegates.


Don't you love our democracy sometime?

[Sunder]

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time Blog Archive - Clinton’s deputy campaign manager resigns « - Blogs from CNN.com

I wonder who's head will roll when Obama wins Wisconsin and Hawaii next week.

[Duppin]

Alright, thanks for the sum-up.

I'm honestly not that surprised that that's how it works, and it makes me feel a little less bad about not caucusing last weekend.

What can I say, fencing > democracy.

[I'm Rich Bitch]

I can not believe Warner is still alive. Maybe McCain will make him VP. Will make him look young.

[Leto Eu`Acumen]

Originally Posted by Duppin

I'm honestly not that surprised that that's how it works, and it makes me feel a little less bad about not caucusing last weekend.

Man, not raggin on ya or anything, but it still matters.

fucked up system or not, the super delegates still look closely at what the public is saying. If Obama keeps rolling off 65-35 wins, the super delegates will fall in line.

[Duppin]

I was being flippant. I had other plans for the day well before I knew when the caucus would be.

[Leto Eu`Acumen]

Originally Posted by I'm Rich Bitch

I can not believe Warner is still alive. Maybe McCain will make him VP.

hehe, and yet, he was still the one to ask General Petraeus "Does this war make America safer?" "I don't know"

[chu]

Originally Posted by Leto Eu`Acumen

In Virginia tonight, 8% of the Democratic vote was from *registered* Republicans. ~70% of that went to Obama.

In an open primary, the people can vote on a candidate that may indirectly help theirs. So if they think that an Obama vs Mccain fight is easier to win then Clinton vs Mccain then they'll try and rig it that way.

Here's a scenario:

-You are a latino in cali and you have the option of voting for a BLACK man or a white man that's pro-immigration. Who do you pick?
There's a reason Mccain is so stubbornly not backing off his immigration policy. And trust me, if cali is lost to the reds, it's over.

[chaos]

Originally Posted by chu

In an open primary, the people can vote on a candidate that may indirectly help theirs. So if they think that an Obama vs Mccain fight is easier to win then Clinton vs Mccain then they'll try and rig it that way.

Here's a scenario:

-You are a latino in cali and you have the option of voting for a BLACK man or a white man that's pro-immigration. Who do you pick?
There's a reason Mccain is so stubbornly not backing off his immigration policy. And trust me, if cali is lost to the reds, it's over.

Every poll, every strategist, every person on the planet concurs that Obama vs McCain is a much easier win for the Dems than Clinton vs McCain. What the fuck are you smoking?

[RiskyChris]

Registered republican don't necessarily have to vote McCain in the general. I'm a registered republican and I will be voting for Obama (in fact, I'm going to switch temporarily democrat to vote in the Indiana primary).

[Leto Eu`Acumen]

Originally Posted by chu

In an open primary, the people can vote on a candidate that may indirectly help theirs. So if they think that an Obama vs Mccain fight is easier to win then Clinton vs Mccain then they'll try and rig it that way.

I do not buy into the whole idea of mass conspiracies by the voters to "rig" state elections in favor of the "opponent they'd like to face the most".

You know what you do with your 1 vote in an open primary? You cast it for the person you want to see hold the office the most. Otherwise you are just helping the person you like the least (or think will be the most defeatable whichever the case may be), right into the office.

You don't help your side by casting your vote for the other side.

No offense, but anybody doing that kind of thing with the only vote they get has 8lbs of cherry flavored jello for brains.

[RiskyChris]

I just donated $20.04 to Obama -- first political donation of my life. I never thought I'd actually get this involved in politics beyond show-up-and-vote.

[I'm Rich Bitch]

Originally Posted by chu

In an open primary, the people can vote on a candidate that may indirectly help theirs. So if they think that an Obama vs Mccain fight is easier to win then Clinton vs Mccain then they'll try and rig it that way.

In theory that is true, however I can not imagine such a large number of people going through the Northern Virginia traffic just to cast a vote for a person to help their cause. Not only that but it was bad weather here in the Washington area tonight that made the traffic even worst. Although possible, I think it is improbable.

I don't see how you could watch the coverage tonight and not see the difference between Obama and McCain. It was striking. Although I like McCain and have a lot of respect for him, I just can not see him beating Obama. I can easily see him beating Hillary. Of course I could be wrong. As I said I live in Washington so I don't know how the rest of the country really thinks on these things. I don't know if people just will not vote for a Black man. That would probably be the best strategy for Hillary or McCain at this point if true. Just say "I am white, he is Black. Vote for me because I am White." I guess if could not hurt at this point.

[Lonin]

Originally Posted by RiskyChris

I just donated $20.04 to Obama -- first political donation of my life. I never thought I'd actually get this involved in politics beyond show-up-and-vote.

Crazy, I just donated $5.01 tonight to Obama, also my first political donation. About an hour ago I got an email from the Obama campaign saying that if you donate $25, it will be matched. I'm tempted to donate again.