Clinton and Obama

[chaos]

Originally Posted by Tolanin

and they thought people were pissed when 2000 didnt go to the popular vote even when that system was established and well understood. I cant imagine the uproar if some shady backroom deals go down and give someone the nomination they dont deserve.

This is what I am saying. It's the worst possible outcome, and will splinter the Democratic party for this and future elections. It would guarantee a Hillary loss this year and it would SEVERELY hurt the Democratic party in their Congressional races. 31 fucking Republican Senators retiring. THIRTY ONE. That's a hell of a lot to risk on some crazy back door shenanigans for Clinton, and no one wants to be known as the one who destroyed the oldest party in the United States.

[I'm Rich Bitch]

Originally Posted by chaos

This is what I am saying. It's the worst possible outcome, and will splinter the Democratic party for this and future elections. It would guarantee a Hillary loss this year and it would SEVERELY hurt the Democratic party in their Congressional races. 31 fucking Republican Senators retiring. THIRTY ONE. That's a hell of a lot to risk on some crazy back door shenanigans for Clinton, and no one wants to be known as the one who destroyed the oldest party in the United States.

As Zhaun said earlier, the Democrats are a stupid fucking party. Howard Dean is their Leader. That says it all. Taking Delegates from Florida and Michigan is just damn stupid.

Yes. The Super Delegates will go to Hillary no matter what. Once McCain and the Republicans start using fear tactics that terriorists are going to kill us if we elect a Dem, that the Dems will tax the shit out of everybody and that Barack is not experienced, the Dems will go with Hillary to try to out Republican the Republicans.

[Leto Eu`Acumen]

Originally Posted by I'm Rich Bitch

MSNBC just said the remaining primaries do not matter. Neither one can win even in a sweep. This will come down to backroom deals for the Super Delegates. I can not see them going to Obama over Clinton. Those are old school Democrats who owe Bill a lot of favors and want him back in office.

I disagree. Two reasons:

First:

Those Democrats remember the 90's too. Yes, it was a relatively peaceful and prosperous time, but it was also the time of Ken Starr and special prosecutors and impeachments. The republican party gave us George "Dubya" Bush in backlash to the first Clinton administration. (I'm not taking sides, that is just what happened.)

Democratic party loyalists, most of whom were around for all that in the 90's, know damn well that the republicans haven't forgotten all that ill-will and fully intend to open up with both guns blazing at even the possibility of another Clinton in the White House. They have been saving shit up for years for this prospect.

Even if Hillary wins, everybody knows it is gonna get really ugly in Washington for a while - not because she wouldn't be a good president or something, but because there is a lot of history there that a hell of a lot of people haven't gotten over yet.

I think the super delegates who have been onboard with Hillary thusfar have been there to try to gain favor with the future administration. Get on board early, earn a couple favors of your own, maybe even get a new job etc etc. They have their preferences and ideas, and I am in no way saying the endorsements were less than sincere, but politicians are, by their very nature, pragmatists.


Which brings me to my second point:


Most of those super delegates are elected officials themselves. Many of which will be up in 2008. And more than being Clinton-Loyalists, they are Democratic-Loyalists.

If Obama has the wind at his back, if he has the enthusiasm and the massive grass-roots following he is gathering that (currently at least) shows no sign of stopping, there will be a lot of practical pragmatic reasons to back Obama for the nod. Not the least of which are the fact that people are more likely to go vote for a President than a Congressman (see turnout for mid-term elections). A lot of folks will vote party-line once they have picked a Pres also - this has the practical effect of if you have a popular presidential candidate, your congressional candidates will get a boost from that presidential turnout vote. If your candidate generates more enthusiasm (and voters) than the other guy in the battleground states where your congressmen are up for election or reelection, you are gonna pick up more seats.


I don't recall the exact numbers of how many senate and house seats they expect to be up for grabs, but Republicans are retiring at the end of this term like crazy. Something like 31 Republican House members are retiring rather than seeking reelection this year. That is a lot. That is a lot to battle for.


If Obama seems as if he can deliver a lot of enthusiastic voters in a lot of states Democrats don't normally play big in, the Party Loyalists will back him simply for the practical purpose of increasing their Senate and House margins to a functional level.

As we have seen, a 50-50 congress is fucking useless.




Also as a 3rd point, I wouldn't underestimate how super delegates see Hillarys high negatives as well. In light of all these primary losses she is currently suffering, that high negative number might be a lot to consider if you are considering sending her into the general as opposed to Obama who doesn't have those kinds of negative numbers atm.

[RiskyChris]

Originally Posted by I'm Rich Bitch

As Zhaun said earlier, the Democrats are a stupid fucking party. Howard Dean is their Leader. That says it all. Taking Delegates from Florida and Michigan is just damn stupid.

Yes. The Super Delegates will go to Hillary no matter what. Once McCain and the Republicans start using fear tactics that terriorists are going to kill us, that the Dems will tax the shit out of everybody and that Barack is not experienced, the Dems will go with Hillary to try to out Republican the Republicans.

Howard Dean has done great things for the DNC.

[Laerazi]

One thing I don't understand is why people would uproar if Clinton won and not Obama, as though Obama has a clear win that would be taken from him. He's in the lead, yes, but not a significant one.

[Heavens_Myst]

Oh man, the Republican in me hopes Clinton picks it up enough to get into a situation at the convention where MI and FL delegates would put her over the top. Lawsuits stretching into September and beyond would just be nomnomnom.

[Sharmai]

My predictions..

I believe that if Hilary wins Texas & Ohio by 60/40 or greater then the supers are extremely like hers as is the whole election

If Hilary wins Texas & Ohio by a much closer 55/45 then the supers are very likely hers unless Obama can pull a hat trick. (Note Obama will still have the popular vote in this scenario so the Democratic party is going to have some serious drama over this selection. In the end it will still go to Hilary and the issue will be resolved by Obama taking the VP position for Hilary)

If Obama wins Ohio &/or Texas by 55/45 or then the supers are going to be EXTREMELY hard pressed to vote on Hilarys side. There might be a litte drama here but Obama will come out with the nominee selection. Mabye a backroom deal makes her the VP.



If Obama wins Ohio & Texas by 60/40 or greater then there is no drama. The election might as well be over. Obamas momentum cannot be ignored by any means and he will be the democratic nominee as well as president.

[Leto Eu`Acumen]

Originally Posted by chaos

31 fucking Republican Senators retiring. THIRTY ONE.

Not nitpicking or anything, but it is 31 House members not Senators that are retiring. There are a handful of republican senators (including folks like John Warner etc) who are retiring also though.

Not to mention all the seats that are gonna be up for both sides period, regardless of folks retiring.

[chaos]

That's what I meant. It's the opportunity to not run against a Republican incumbent.

I think there are some dumb Democrats, but the whole damn organization isn't so stupid and to make drama by screwing Obama. It won't happen.

It's all premature anyway. Clinton may blow out Texas and Ohio and actually pull ahead in delegates, but I doubt it.

[Araxen]

If Obama wins Ohio and Texas he is the dem nom. It doesn't matter what the margins is. The Supers will fall in line. Hillary has drawn the line in the sand and has said she will win Ohio and Texas and if she doesn't. It is over. If she wins she'll be the nom. It's as easy as that, imho.

[chaos]

Originally Posted by Laerazi

One thing I don't understand is why people would uproar if Clinton won and not Obama, as though Obama has a clear win that would be taken from him. He's in the lead, yes, but not a significant one.

A lead is a lead. He's leading both the popular vote and the delegate count. The DNC is not in any position to challenge that.

[chaos]

Originally Posted by Araxen

If Obama wins Ohio and Texas he is the dem nom. It doesn't matter what the margins is. The Supers will fall in line. Hillary has drawn the line in the sand and has said she will win Ohio and Texas and if she doesn't. It is over. If she wins she'll be the nom. It's as easy as that, imho.

If she wins, she is still behind in delegates and popualr vote though. Unless she just blows it the fuck out, which is unlikely. It's anything but easy imo.

[RiskyChris]

Originally Posted by Araxen

[IG]http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c397/Bouzereau/Decision08.gif[/IMG]

If Obama wins Ohio and Texas he is the dem nom. It doesn't matter what the margins is. The Supers will fall in line. Hillary has drawn the line in the sand and has said she will win Ohio and Texas and if she doesn't. It is over. If she wins she'll be the nom. It's as easy as that, imho.

How? Are we really so apathetic to just say that we accept that kind of bullshit from Superdelegates?

Obama is leading by over 100 delegates elected through primaries and caucuses. Even Clinton leading Texas, Penn, and Ohio by a margin of 60 to 40 will only get her roughly 90-100 elected delegates over Obama.

There is almost no way for her to surpass him in the popular vote. If the DNC ignores its constituency like that, they will throw the election for the republicans.

[Zhaun's_Shade]

The better Obama does, the more concerned I become that the Clintons will do something "unfortunate".

[Leto Eu`Acumen]

Originally Posted by Laerazi

One thing I don't understand is why people would uproar if Clinton won and not Obama, as though Obama has a clear win that would be taken from him. He's in the lead, yes, but not a significant one.

The platform of the two candidates are very similar, but that is about the only thing similar between the two campaigns.

(I might piss off a Hillary supporter or two, but oh well.)

As I see it the biggest difference between the Hillary Campaign and the Obama campaign is that Hillary is running a Democratically-Partisan campaign and Obama is running a Post-Partisan campaign.

Hillary is running against Republicans, and Obama at his rallys openly talks about attracting Republicans to his campaign. It is a BIG difference.

It is why, even on this forum, so many folks say they will vote for Obama first but McCain rather than Hillary second. It is a completely different mindset than just Democrat vs Republican.

In Virginia tonight, 8% of the Democratic vote was from *registered* Republicans. ~70% of that went to Obama.


In light of Obamas successes, both Hillary and McCain recently have tried to boost their campaign speeches with more uplifting, patriotic, inspiriational themes, thinking this is where Obamas appeal comes from. What they do not realize however, is that it isn't the grandiose speech, but the post-partisanship that is so appealing. It is the respect for ideas he disagrees with, and the respect and even desire to include not just Democrats but as many Independents and Republicans as want to join as well.

Somewhere in this thread (and I apologize to the author for not remembering who), someone said something like "I see Hillary Clinton as just another Bush". The reason? The partisanship. The reason many Obama supporters would vote for McCain as a second choice? his maverick reputation for crossing party lines to get shit done.

People are tired as hell of the game - If they get rolled by that very same game they HATE by backroom deals....you are goddamn right a lot of them are gonna be disillusioned and not feel like voting for any of those bastards for quite a while afterward.