Clinton and Obama

[chaos]

Originally Posted by Sharmai

Woot Obama carried the Latino vote in maryland (albeit small percentage of voters) but if he can do that in Texas thats the majority of votes Hilary is counting on

He won the Latino vote in Virginia too, which IS a significant demographic. Not like it is in Texas, but significant none the less.

[Zhaun's_Shade]

Like they said on MSNBC: John McCain needs to avoid speaking after Obama.

Obama, in front of a large, mixed crowd of different races and ages gives a stirring, motivational speech that filled the crowed with energy that they returned. Motivation and energy shared with those watching at home.

30sec later...

McCain is there, in front of a half dozen old white people. He speech was pretty dull, and the few people you saw looked half asleep.

The content of McCain's speach wasn't bad, but after the energy Obama created in his 10-15min of speaking, McCain just made me yawn. As soon as McCain starts speaking I find it hard to care, Huckabee and Obama could talk about anything and I could find it interesting.

[chaos]

Yeah Obama's "Obamacan" speech was great. Seeing McCain after that was a disappointment.

[Leto Eu`Acumen]

Originally Posted by Laerazi

I like how news channels are still portraying Obama as the "underdog"; I've never really seen him in that manner, so it's strange hearing it, especially now.

After tonight I wouldn't say he is.

The Clinton "Machine" is not to be underestimated however. When they talk about the machine, they are not talking about a style or grass-roots organization or such. It is several decades worth of friends, allies, favors, etc etc that they have built up going well back to when Bill was the Governor of Arkansas, through his 2 terms as President of the United States, her terms as Senator of New York, etc etc. It is that raw political muscle that they can bring to bear that is worth so much.

It is why there is so much "what if" speculation about what might happen if this goes all the way to the convention without resolution. When they speculate about those "back room deals" they are always speculating about the Super Delegates delivering a *Clinton* victory out of that back room deal, not an Obama victory.

For Obama to win, he has to overcome that advantage. He was playing from behind, and he has to win convincingly to win. This momentum is extraordinarily helpful to him atm for that very reason.

[I'm Rich Bitch]

Originally Posted by Laerazi

I like how news channels are still portraying Obama as the "underdog"; I've never really seen him in that manner, so it's strange hearing it, especially now.

I still would not call him the front runner because:

1. He is only tied for Delegates.
2. He is running against the Clintons.
3. The Clintons will get Florida and Michigan to count.
4. He has no way to win Texas and Ohio due to demographics.
5. The Super Delegates belong to the Clintons.

[Ancalagon]

Originally Posted by Zhaun's_Shade

Like they said on MSNBC: John McCain needs to avoid speaking after Obama.

Obama, in front of a large, mixed crowd of different races and ages gives a stirring, motivational speech that filled the crowed with energy that they returned. Motivation and energy shared with those watching at home.

30sec later...

McCain is there, in front of a half dozen old white people. He speech was pretty dull, and the few people you saw looked half asleep.

The content of McCain's speach wasn't bad, but after the energy Obama created in his 10-15min of speaking, McCain just made me yawn. As soon as McCain starts speaking I find it hard to care, Huckabee and Obama could talk about anything and I could find it interesting.

While the circumstances are certainly different, this has shades of the 1960 presidential election, in which Kennedy outshone Nixon by miles when it came time for them to debate. Honestly, I cannot fathom Obama losing if indeed he secures the nomination. It would take a series of mistakes so epic as to defy imagination for defeat to visit the Democrats.

[Zhaun's_Shade]

Originally Posted by Ancalagon

While the circumstances are certainly different, this has shades of the 1960 presidential election, in which Kennedy outshone Nixon by miles when it came time for them to debate. Honestly, I cannot fathom Obama losing if indeed he secures the nomination. It would take a series of mistakes so epic as to defy imagination for defeat to visit the Democrats.

You underestimate the Democrats' ability to fuck things up I think.

[Tolanin]

mccain has the huge luxury of knowing how and why nixon lost tho. For all that nixon and mccain arent the same guy, nixon was far dryer and far smarter, mccain is populist just not nearly as good at it as obama.

I think people underestimate the damage going to convention may do to either candidate. not know who has the nomination until just 2 months before the election?

[chaos]

Originally Posted by I'm Rich Bitch

I still would not call him the front runner because:

1. He is only tied for Delegates.
2. He is running against the Clintons.
3. The Clintons will get Florida and Michigan to count.
4. He has no way to win Texas and Ohio due to demographics.
5. The Super Delegates belong to the Clintons.

You keep saying that but it's completely not feasable. If they got Michigan and Florida to count it would cause so much upheaval in the party. The Clintons aren't stupid, they know this. You really think that Clinton or Dean would allow this election to destroy the Democratic party? They may be selfish but not THAT goddamn selfish.

And the super delegates are already splitting, many over the concept of superdelegates deciding the election rather than pledged delegates/popular vote.

I am with you, I believe Clinton will win, but I am starting to hope he may have a chance. Part of it is because I'm only 27 and haven't had time for the world to truly weigh me down with the depressing reality of our government, and I still believe that we can have nice things. But I should know by now, this is why we can't have nice things.

[RiskyChris]

How can Clinton win? Seriously. Obama is up by more than 100 pledged delegates. If Clinton wins the big 3 (TEXASS, Ohio, Transylvania) by a 60/40 margin, she'll only gain roughly 90 delegates on him.

There's almost no way for Obama to not win the popular, pledged delegate count.

If the DNC fucks the public over and goes with Clinton, well, then politics is pretty much dead(redead?) for a lot of America.

Edit: I'll post a spreadsheet later tonight. My girlfriend just nearly broke my nose, so I'm tending to that right now.

[Tolanin]

and they thought people were pissed when 2000 didnt go to the popular vote even when that system was established and well understood. I cant imagine the uproar if some shady backroom deals go down and give someone the nomination they dont deserve.

[I'm Rich Bitch]

Originally Posted by RiskyChris

How can Clinton win? Seriously. Obama is up by more than 100 pledged delegates. If Clinton wins the big 3 (TEXASS, Ohio, Transylvania) by a 60/40 margin, she'll only gain roughly 90 delegates on him.

There's almost no way for Obama to not win the popular, pledged delegate count.

If the DNC fucks the public over and goes with Clinton, well, then politics is pretty much dead(redead?) for a lot of America.

Edit: I'll post a spreadsheet later tonight. My girlfriend just nearly broke my nose, so I'm tending to that right now.

MSNBC just said the remaining primaries do not matter. Neither one can win even in a sweep. This will come down to backroom deals for the Super Delegates. I can not see them going to Obama over Clinton. Those are old school Democrats who owe Bill a lot of favors and want him back in office.

[chaos]

Originally Posted by RiskyChris

How can Clinton win? Seriously. Obama is up by more than 100 pledged delegates. If Clinton wins the big 3 (TEXASS, Ohio, Transylvania) by a 60/40 margin, she'll only gain roughly 90 delegates on him.

There's almost no way for Obama to not win the popular, pledged delegate count.

If the DNC fucks the public over and goes with Clinton, well, then politics is pretty much dead(redead?) for a lot of America.

Edit: I'll post a spreadsheet later tonight. My girlfriend just nearly broke my nose, so I'm tending to that right now.

I heard that 25% of significant others are victims of domestic abuse. It's ok to talk abotu it, you are not alone.

[RiskyChris]

Originally Posted by I'm Rich Bitch

MSNBC just said the remaining primaries do not matter. Neither one can win even in a sweep. This will come down to backroom deals for the Super Delegates. I can not see them going to Obama over Clinton. Those are old school Democrats who owe Bill a lot of favors and want him back in office.

Obama can potentially not make the majority, but he will lead in pledged delegates by the end of the primary season.

This is what will get him the nomination. A party that selects the least popular candidate through shady deals is a party that will lose a lot of good will among Americans.

[Leto Eu`Acumen]

Originally Posted by RiskyChris

How can Clinton win? Seriously. Obama is up by more than 100 pledged delegates. If Clinton wins the big 3 (TEXASS, Ohio, Transylvania) by a 60/40 margin, she'll only gain roughly 90 delegates on him.

There's almost no way for Obama to not win the popular, pledged delegate count.

If the DNC fucks the public over and goes with Clinton, well, then politics is pretty much dead(redead?) for a lot of America.

Edit: I'll post a spreadsheet later tonight. My girlfriend just nearly broke my nose, so I'm tending to that right now.

When this whole "This is gonna split all the way to the convention" talk started after Super Tuesday. ALL of those discussions pretty much assumed more-or-less a 50/50 split of the delegates throughout the rest of the race, leaving each campaign within spitting distance of each other.

Not many folks were thinking about 8 (and possibly 10) strait Obama wins by a massive 2 to 1 margin.

There are rumblings from the Clinton Camp that March 4th (Texas/Ohio) is *necessary* to win. You read between the lines on that, and you could come to the conclusion that if Obama wins either of those states, you might turn on the television on March 5th and see Hillary withdraw from the race. Maybe it goes all the way to Pennsylvania - if she does win all 3, yea, it could go on further and it could get funky.....But with Obama's momentum and his inroads on all sorts of Demographics he wasn't expected to do so well with, he could win one or several of those.


If that happens, this could be over in weeks, not go all the way to a brokered convention in August.


We will see, but I think that is a LOT closer to reality tonight than it was a week ago.