Clinton and Obama - Page 477

chaos · 05-20-2008, 05:34 PM

Aren't exit polls the ones that they take from people leaving the voting booth after having voted? It's not really the same at all as a random phone poll 1.5 years before the election.

I'm Rich Bitch · 05-20-2008, 05:35 PM

Fuck Kentucky. Go rot in your coal mines.

Burf · 05-20-2008, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chaos

Aren't exit polls the ones that they take from people leaving the voting booth after having voted? It's not really the same at all as a random phone poll 1.5 years before the election.

Yes, and that would work if they interviewed 100% of the people that vote and could also verify that they told the truth.

chaos · 05-20-2008, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Burf

Yes, and that would work if they interviewed 100% of the people that vote and could also verify that they told the truth.

This is true, but so far this year we have seen them be very accurate on the exit polling. I have no idea how the science of polling works but I would imagine they have to account for sample size and the possibility of incorrect information.

Burf · 05-20-2008, 05:42 PM

I'd say they're getting better, but they were awful at first. The pollsters have had to learn some lessons this election, for sure.

Sunder · 05-20-2008, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Burf

I'd say they're getting better, but they were awful at first. The pollsters have had to learn some lessons this election, for sure.

Your arguments about polls taken last October are meaningless to exit polls taken the day of, when talking about calling races. The only polls that matter when calling states are the exit polls taken that day. The other polls are, as you state, mostly meaningless. But no one uses those polls to call elections. They use the same-day exit polls. And ever since FL in 2000, THOSE polls have been extremely accurate. So yes, they can call some states with 0% reporting. And Kentucky is prime evidence as to why they can.

Eomer · 05-20-2008, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Burf

Yes, and that would work if they interviewed 100% of the people that vote and could also verify that they told the truth.

Exit polling tends to be extremely accurate, actually. It's a pretty well established method. Of course things can go wonky from time to time.

AladainAF · 05-20-2008, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Exit polling tends to be extremely accurate, actually. It's a pretty well established method. Of course things can go wonky from time to time.

Quote:

They use the same-day exit polls. And ever since FL in 2000, THOSE polls have been extremely accurate.

To both OPs of above quotes: Don't tell the Democrats that after the 2004 election!

Sunder · 05-21-2008, 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AladainAF

To both OPs of above quotes: Don't tell the Democrats that after the 2004 election!

I agree. Any Democrats screaming "we were robbed" in 2004 are just sore losers. Any Democrats screaming "we were robbed" in 2000 have a pretty solid argument.

Bristlebane · 05-21-2008, 09:30 AM

I could honestly give a fuck about any of these candidates, but I found this list of Obama flubs somewhat amusing. If Shrub or McPain had said any of these things, it'd be all over the place. Sorry if it's been posted, I haven't followed any of these political threads.

My favorite is the first one. You can find videos of all of them. The guy is full of shit. Hillary is full of shit. McCain is Bush #3. All three candidates are worthless.

Obama overstates Kan. tornado deaths - Barack Obama News - MSNBC.com

-- Last May, he claimed that tornadoes in Kansas killed a whopping 10,000 people: "In case you missed it, this week, there was a tragedy in Kansas. Ten thousand people died -- an entire town destroyed." The actual death toll: 12.

-- Earlier this month in Oregon, he redrew the map of the United States: "Over the last 15 months, we've traveled to every corner of the United States. I've now been in 57 states? I think one left to go."

-- Last week, in front of a roaring Sioux Falls, S.D., audience, Obama exulted: "Thank you, Sioux City. ... I said it wrong. I've been in Iowa for too long. I'm sorry."

-- Explaining last week why he was trailing Hillary Clinton in Kentucky, Obama again botched basic geography: "Sen. Clinton, I think, is much better known, coming from a nearby state of Arkansas. So it's not surprising that she would have an advantage in some of those states in the middle." On what map is Arkansas closer to Kentucky than Illinois?

-- Obama has as much trouble with numbers as he has with maps. Last March, on the anniversary of the Bloody Sunday march in Selma, Ala., he claimed his parents united as a direct result of the civil rights movement:

"There was something stirring across the country because of what happened in Selma, Ala., because some folks are willing to march across a bridge. So they got together and Barack Obama Jr. was born."

Obama was born in 1961. The Selma march took place in 1965. His spokesman, Bill Burton, later explained that Obama was "speaking metaphorically about the civil rights movement as a whole."

-- Earlier this month in Cape Girardeau, Mo., Obama showed off his knowledge of the war in Afghanistan by homing in on a lack of translators: "We only have a certain number of them, and if they are all in Iraq, then it's harder for us to use them in Afghanistan." The real reason it's "harder for us to use them" in Afghanistan: Iraqis speak Arabic or Kurdish. The Afghanis speak Pashto, Farsi or other non-Arabic languages.

-- Over the weekend in Oregon, Obama pleaded ignorance of the decades-old, multi-billion-dollar massive Hanford nuclear waste cleanup:

"Here's something that you will rarely hear from a politician, and that is that I'm not familiar with the Hanford, uuuuhh, site, so I don't know exactly what's going on there. (Applause.) Now, having said that, I promise you I'll learn about it by the time I leave here on the ride back to the airport."

I assume on that ride, a staffer reminded him that he's voted on at least one defense authorization bill that addressed the "costs, schedules, and technical issues" dealing with the nation's most contaminated nuclear waste site.

-- Last March, the Chicago Tribune reported this little-noticed nugget about a fake autobiographical detail in Obama's "Dreams from My Father":

"Then, there's the copy of Life magazine that Obama presents as his racial awakening at age 9. In it, he wrote, was an article and two accompanying photographs of an African-American man physically and mentally scarred by his efforts to lighten his skin. In fact, the Life article and the photographs don't exist, say the magazine's own historians."

-- And in perhaps the most seriously troubling set of gaffes of them all, Obama told a Portland crowd over the weekend that Iran doesn't "pose a serious threat to us" -- cluelessly arguing that "tiny countries" with small defense budgets can't do us harm -- and then promptly flip-flopped the next day, claiming, "I've made it clear for years that the threat from Iran is grave."

Moontayle · 05-21-2008, 09:48 AM

The last one is fairly easy to decodify: When he made the original statement it was in reference to their supposed power in relation to Russia during the height of the Cold War. And he's right, countries like Iran can't hold a candle to the might of the Soviet Empire because not only could they field the nukes but they had the troops and the military might to back up their actions. It's amazing how close we skirted the edge of WWIII on a number of occasions.

His next statement is more in the relevance of today, where Iran is a threat, I think they're likely at the top next to North Korea as far as that goes.

They're still no Soviet Empire though.

Burf · 05-21-2008, 09:53 AM

Those couldn't have happened, because Obama is perfect in every way.

Eomer · 05-21-2008, 09:57 AM

Some of those are goofy, but some are just downright accidents. Do you honestly think he meant to, or had any untoward motivation, by saying "ten thousand" instead of "ten"? Come on. I'm sure you can find similar lists for most candidates, considering just how much these people are speaking on a daily basis.

Sunder · 05-21-2008, 10:02 AM

How about not just flubs, but intentional and calculated flip-flopping?

The master of his flip-flopping domain - The Carpetbagger Report

Integrity my ass.

Bristlebane · 05-21-2008, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eomer

Some of those are goofy, but some are just downright accidents. Do you honestly think he meant to, or had any untoward motivation, by saying "ten thousand" instead of "ten"? Come on. I'm sure you can find similar lists for most candidates, considering just how much these people are speaking on a daily basis.

Uh, no. I understand what you're saying, by all means. They all make mistakes. But watch the video. He didn't accidentally say 10,000, he was just talking out of his ass. If I heard myself say 10,000 when I knew I meant to say "10" I'd catch it pretty fast. And, technically, I believe 12 people died.

Obama is not some perfect hero.

Don't take this as me just making fun of Obama, I'd gladly laugh at any such list for any of the three candidates.

05-21-2008, 09:48 AM	#7151 (permalink)
Moontayle Romo is a manwhore Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Dallas, TX Posts: 2,770	The last one is fairly easy to decodify: When he made the original statement it was in reference to their supposed power in relation to Russia during the height of the Cold War. And he's right, countries like Iran can't hold a candle to the might of the Soviet Empire because not only could they field the nukes but they had the troops and the military might to back up their actions. It's amazing how close we skirted the edge of WWIII on a number of occasions. His next statement is more in the relevance of today, where Iran is a threat, I think they're likely at the top next to North Korea as far as that goes. They're still no Soviet Empire though. __________________

05-21-2008, 10:02 AM	#7154 (permalink)
Sunder Registered User Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,189	How about not just flubs, but intentional and calculated flip-flopping? The master of his flip-flopping domain - The Carpetbagger Report Integrity my ass. __________________ "The rule is perfect: in all matters of opinion our adversaries are insane." --Mark Twain

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05-20-2008, 05:34 PM	#7141 (permalink)
chaos Registered User Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,392 +6 Internets	Aren't exit polls the ones that they take from people leaving the voting booth after having voted? It's not really the same at all as a random phone poll 1.5 years before the election.

05-20-2008, 05:35 PM	#7142 (permalink)
I'm Rich Bitch Registered User Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,309 -69 Internets	Fuck Kentucky. Go rot in your coal mines.

05-20-2008, 05:42 PM	#7145 (permalink)
Burf Kneel before Zod! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,317 +2 Internets	I'd say they're getting better, but they were awful at first. The pollsters have had to learn some lessons this election, for sure.

05-21-2008, 09:30 AM	#7150 (permalink)
Bristlebane Registered User Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 1,856	I could honestly give a fuck about any of these candidates, but I found this list of Obama flubs somewhat amusing. If Shrub or McPain had said any of these things, it'd be all over the place. Sorry if it's been posted, I haven't followed any of these political threads. My favorite is the first one. You can find videos of all of them. The guy is full of shit. Hillary is full of shit. McCain is Bush #3. All three candidates are worthless. Obama overstates Kan. tornado deaths - Barack Obama News - MSNBC.com -- Last May, he claimed that tornadoes in Kansas killed a whopping 10,000 people: "In case you missed it, this week, there was a tragedy in Kansas. Ten thousand people died -- an entire town destroyed." The actual death toll: 12. -- Earlier this month in Oregon, he redrew the map of the United States: "Over the last 15 months, we've traveled to every corner of the United States. I've now been in 57 states? I think one left to go." -- Last week, in front of a roaring Sioux Falls, S.D., audience, Obama exulted: "Thank you, Sioux City. ... I said it wrong. I've been in Iowa for too long. I'm sorry." -- Explaining last week why he was trailing Hillary Clinton in Kentucky, Obama again botched basic geography: "Sen. Clinton, I think, is much better known, coming from a nearby state of Arkansas. So it's not surprising that she would have an advantage in some of those states in the middle." On what map is Arkansas closer to Kentucky than Illinois? -- Obama has as much trouble with numbers as he has with maps. Last March, on the anniversary of the Bloody Sunday march in Selma, Ala., he claimed his parents united as a direct result of the civil rights movement: "There was something stirring across the country because of what happened in Selma, Ala., because some folks are willing to march across a bridge. So they got together and Barack Obama Jr. was born." Obama was born in 1961. The Selma march took place in 1965. His spokesman, Bill Burton, later explained that Obama was "speaking metaphorically about the civil rights movement as a whole." -- Earlier this month in Cape Girardeau, Mo., Obama showed off his knowledge of the war in Afghanistan by homing in on a lack of translators: "We only have a certain number of them, and if they are all in Iraq, then it's harder for us to use them in Afghanistan." The real reason it's "harder for us to use them" in Afghanistan: Iraqis speak Arabic or Kurdish. The Afghanis speak Pashto, Farsi or other non-Arabic languages. -- Over the weekend in Oregon, Obama pleaded ignorance of the decades-old, multi-billion-dollar massive Hanford nuclear waste cleanup: "Here's something that you will rarely hear from a politician, and that is that I'm not familiar with the Hanford, uuuuhh, site, so I don't know exactly what's going on there. (Applause.) Now, having said that, I promise you I'll learn about it by the time I leave here on the ride back to the airport." I assume on that ride, a staffer reminded him that he's voted on at least one defense authorization bill that addressed the "costs, schedules, and technical issues" dealing with the nation's most contaminated nuclear waste site. -- Last March, the Chicago Tribune reported this little-noticed nugget about a fake autobiographical detail in Obama's "Dreams from My Father": "Then, there's the copy of Life magazine that Obama presents as his racial awakening at age 9. In it, he wrote, was an article and two accompanying photographs of an African-American man physically and mentally scarred by his efforts to lighten his skin. In fact, the Life article and the photographs don't exist, say the magazine's own historians." -- And in perhaps the most seriously troubling set of gaffes of them all, Obama told a Portland crowd over the weekend that Iran doesn't "pose a serious threat to us" -- cluelessly arguing that "tiny countries" with small defense budgets can't do us harm -- and then promptly flip-flopped the next day, claiming, "I've made it clear for years that the threat from Iran is grave."

05-21-2008, 09:53 AM	#7152 (permalink)
Burf Kneel before Zod! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,317 +2 Internets	Those couldn't have happened, because Obama is perfect in every way.

05-21-2008, 09:57 AM	#7153 (permalink)
Eomer You mean I can change this? Neat! Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 9,826 +31 Internets	Some of those are goofy, but some are just downright accidents. Do you honestly think he meant to, or had any untoward motivation, by saying "ten thousand" instead of "ten"? Come on. I'm sure you can find similar lists for most candidates, considering just how much these people are speaking on a daily basis.