Ron Paul, does he stand a chance?

[Soriak]

Originally Posted by chaos

Yeah but we're not talking about PS3s here, we're talking basic necessities that people need every day.

Food and shelter are the major expenses, neither of which depends on the exchange rate. (well, some food does but there are alternatives if it gets too expensive)

Gas, too, but that's not only going up because of the exchange rate.

[Tolanin]

its of course going to be product by product but for most things you spend money on the prices arent gonna change much... most of my money goes to food thats grown here, or my mortgage to a domestic bank. Other than that i spend alot on IP stuff.. nice thing about IP is most of that stuff is like a massive profit margin, so the extra dollar cost of printing that CD isnt gonna matter much when it costs like 2c only... so in that case they will just eat the cost to keep buying at the same level.

Theres a few luxury goods where thats not true like a mercedes or something i guess. But even most of those products wont see price increases that mirror the dollars fall because demand isnt inelastic.. you could see a 50 percent drop in dollar value and maybe only see a 10 percent rise in prices on those goods. If thats the case is the increased trade gonna offset and even out?

I think most people are far to concerned about this dollar value issue, its not all good, but its not all bad either and we are definitly not on the brink of destruction.

[Soriak]

If you want some depressing views on the economy, there's a lot more serious stuff than the exchange value: The Economic Consequences of Mr. Bush: Politics & Power: vanityfair.com

Written by a winner of the Nobel price in Economics. Pretty serious smack-down, but sadly spot-on

The effect of the tax cuts - if made permanent - speaks volumes by itself:

Together these tax cuts, when fully implemented and if made permanent, mean that in 2012 the average reduction for an American in the bottom 20 percent will be a scant $45, while those with incomes of more than $1 million will see their tax bills reduced by an average of $162,000.

[rinthea]

Stiglitz is a liar whose clear purpose is to undermine confidence in the American economy

[FulorianC]

Originally Posted by Soriak

Food and shelter are the major expenses, neither of which depends on the exchange rate. (well, some food does but there are alternatives if it gets too expensive)

Gas, too, but that's not only going up because of the exchange rate.

Actually, they do, when the materials for house construction are all sold by other countries, and when our food is imported. The only way exchange rates become irrelevant is in a country that is self sufficient - something we are not.

[Soriak]

Originally Posted by FulorianC

Actually, they do, when the materials for house construction are all sold by other countries, and when our food is imported. The only way exchange rates become irrelevant is in a country that is self sufficient - something we are not.

Housing material is only relevant when it comes to construction of new houses - not rent/mortgage payments. I admit to not having an idea how much of the food in the US is imported though

[Schatze]

Considering everything in a Western nation's economy is ultimately based upon energy prices, especially crude, the weakening American dollar and the rising barrel will have an impact on pretty much every facet of society.

What do you think tills the fields? What do you think the fertilizer is made from, how it gets to the farm? What do you think the pesticides are made from, how they get to the farm? How does your local produce get to the market? How does you non-local yet domestic fruit and produce get to the market? How do the employees at the market get to work?...

The weakening dollar WILL have an impact on you, through oil prices, which affect the entire economy directly in multiple ways or indirectly in multiple ways. The weakening dollar and the rising barrel will cause American goods to rise in price too, comparative to said goods made elsewhere. How much they rise compared to foreign goods I don't know, but rise they will. And since other currencies are getting stronger comparative to the USD, and the barrel of oil is generally pegged in USD...

[Soriak]

True that oil will raise all prices - but if all prices go up, that's inflation. We're not seeing that just yet... not to say it can't/won't happen, but probably not to that big a degree - certainly not to the tune of 10%.

What is, apparently, going down is the marijuana import
Helena Independent Record

Previously, he said, pot growers could produce a pound of potent “B.C. bud” for about $2,000 Canadian and, with the exchange rate, smugglers buying with U.S. currency could sell it for a hefty profit south of the border. In those days, an American dollar in Canada was like a 50 percent discount card, and there’s nothing like a wholesale discount to bolster retail profits.

Production costs remain in the range of $2,000 Canadian, Easton said. But with the currencies at par, the profit margin is completely gone, unless Montanans are willing to pay 50 percent more for the prime northern bud. A smuggler’s risks and transport costs are no longer offset by profit.

“The upshot is that the Canadian marijuana is now less competitive against marijuana grown elsewhere,” Easton said. “This is a cost-driven business. With exports no longer viable, the British Columbia marijuana industry has certainly taken a hit, so to speak.”

[Schatze]

Yet at least one of the major tools employed by the federal reserve to control inflation, is increasing the money supply, further devaluing the currency. This is already happening, and on a large scale; this is one of the factors behind the declining USD. It seems to me this will just exacerbate the problem at some point down the road.

That is, while monetary policy may be masking the domestic side effects of high energy costs and a devalued dollar, eventually something will have to give, and when it does, it seems to me the steps taken to curb inflation now may very well make the eventual total aggregate inflation due to rising energy costs (and the devalued dollar) even higher.

There also seems to be an upside and a downside in regards to national debt. That is, the real value of the current debt owed decreases, but that future borrowing will be more difficult.

But this is so not an area of strength for me so I could very well be wrong.

edit: maybe the US will get off our asses about liberalizing drug laws, whenever it is the Conservatives get voted out of office. Instead of worrying about an influx of high quality Canadian weed, Canada will have to worry about a large influx of low quality Amerischwag backpacked through Alberta by American drug mules.

[rinthea]

Originally Posted by Schatze

Considering everything in a Western nation's economy is ultimately based upon energy prices, especially crude, the weakening American dollar and the rising barrel will have an impact on pretty much every facet of society.

What do you think tills the fields? What do you think the fertilizer is made from, how it gets to the farm? What do you think the pesticides are made from, how they get to the farm? How does your local produce get to the market? How does you non-local yet domestic fruit and produce get to the market? How do the employees at the market get to work?...

The weakening dollar WILL have an impact on you, through oil prices, which affect the entire economy directly in multiple ways or indirectly in multiple ways. The weakening dollar and the rising barrel will cause American goods to rise in price too, comparative to said goods made elsewhere. How much they rise compared to foreign goods I don't know, but rise they will. And since other currencies are getting stronger comparative to the USD, and the barrel of oil is generally pegged in USD...

oil prices are up 100% in 2 years...

[GrobbeeTrull2.0]

Originally Posted by darksensei

Intel Official: Expect Less Privacy

"Don't worry, if you have nothing to hide you won't mind us looking around."

"Trust us, we're the government!"

Sickening.

[Khorum]

OK let's be clear then, you'd rather there were no obstructions between the terror cells in the US and their foreign sources of funding and intelligence?

[GrobbeeTrull2.0]

When put so eloquently, yes. I would. I would rather have liberty and privacy for all, than everyone be on lock-down searching for 'terrorists' that the government can declare at any moment.

When they say Freedom isn't Free, they don't mean that you pay the price of liberty, because then you aren't experiencing Freedom. I'd rather we face a terrorist attack every 20 years and suffer losses, than face none ever, but be subjects and not citizens.

[Khorum]

Originally Posted by GrobbeeTrull2.0

When put so eloquently, yes. I would. I would rather have liberty and privacy for all, than everyone be on lock-down searching for 'terrorists' that the government can declare at any moment.

When they say Freedom isn't Free, they don't mean that you pay the price of liberty, because then you aren't experiencing Freedom. I'd rather we face a terrorist attack every 20 years and suffer losses, than face none ever, but be subjects and not citizens.

Hmm. So you'd rather see periodic bouts of horrific bloodletting than allow the state--whose only REAL job is to collect taxes precisely so it can keep that shit from happening--from protecting your children and your neighbors? A little early for Paine and Jefferson don't you think?

Besides, what Jefferson actually said was the "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots". Not the inconvenience of, or disappointment of, or frustration of, or the deprivation of privacy of patriots. Their blood. Yeah, sweet guy. But I like him too and I'm glad to see you're with me.

[Soriak]

Originally Posted by Schatze

Yet at least one of the major tools employed by the federal reserve to control inflation, is increasing the money supply, further devaluing the currency.

On the opposite - increasing the money supply leads to higher inflation. (along with exchange devaluation, as you correctly pointed out)
However, combating inflation is only one of the purposes of the federal reserve and they felt that mitigating the housing trouble would be worth a risk of higher inflation.

Hasn't really had any major adverse effects so far, as mentioned they're 0.2% off the "ideal" forecast from the beginning of the year. Of course they're on borrowed time with the debt and all, but the fed can only do so much here, they're going to need fiscally responsible politicians. Which doesn't mean cutting everything (on the contrary, actually) but going over the tax code asap. When the economy does great, there should not be a tax cut (think 2001) - that's when it's time to pay off debt and - because the US had almost none in 2000) invest long-term. As the economy slows down the government would then spend more short-term to balance it out. Tax cuts can be effective in some cases, too, but the budget needs to be healthy first and they should be given when the economy is slowing down - not when it's at its peak.

Originally Posted by Khorum

OK let's be clear then, you'd rather there were no obstructions between the terror cells in the US and their foreign sources of funding and intelligence?

You can always argue for more surveillance and less civil rights with some threat out there. Why not just get rid of habeas corpus, all those terrorists may just get off with good lawyers.

There's a price to that security - both in terms of civil liberties as well as raw dollars. At some point the cost is just too great to try and prevent some nutjob from carrying out his plot. The US may be an economic powerhouse, but there's a limit to how much can be spent on security even for you.