Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac - the big bailout? - Page 37

Itzena · 09-22-2008, 12:55 PM

Look at the value of the dollar.
Remember what crude is priced in.

Plus speculators frantically looking for something even halfway secure.

Jedah · 09-22-2008, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itzena

Plus speculators frantically looking for something even halfway secure.

They're in for a real shocker; at this rate, projected petroleum use is going to continue going down because of stagnant economic growth. It'll bubble and burst again like it did this summer if it's really speculators again.

Soriak · 09-22-2008, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itzena

Plus speculators frantically looking for something even halfway secure.

Or, you know, people again predict more economic growth which means more oil is needed in the future, driving up the price of oil futures.

Gurgeh · 09-22-2008, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itzena

Look at the value of the dollar.
Remember what crude is priced in.

Plus speculators frantically looking for something even halfway secure.

Dollar went down 5%, well I guess we should expect the dollar to fall below 0.5€ someday, but it does not explain the that much of a rise that fast. We seriously have a speculation and volatility problem.

prescient63 · 09-22-2008, 01:10 PM

There's a big short squeeze on today as well. It's basically all three things added up, declining dollar, short squeeze, and some people predicting economic growth.

Schatze · 09-22-2008, 02:27 PM

Cement multinationals are pretty stagnant right now. They're probably one of the best predictors of economic status. Everything needs concrete.

prescient63 · 09-22-2008, 03:24 PM

I think the market gas lost it's mind and that oil shouldn't be above $75-80. Who knows though. In a slowing economy I have a hard time seeing how oil that is up over last year is justifiable.

Gurgeh · 09-22-2008, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prescient63

I think the market gas lost it's mind and that oil shouldn't be above $75-80. Who knows though. In a slowing economy I have a hard time seeing how oil that is up over last year is justifiable.

If the Yuan value really increase (compared to the $) it could get really bad, china could eat an infinite amount of oil.

Itzena · 09-22-2008, 03:50 PM

It's a slowing market but overall demand is still higher than it was a decade or so ago plus we're at peak oil, give or take.

prescient63 · 09-22-2008, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itzena

It's a slowing market but overall demand is still higher than it was a decade or so ago plus we're at peak oil, give or take.

Demand isn't up 500%

Eomer · 09-22-2008, 04:47 PM

I wasn't aware that economic theory predicts that for a 500% price increase of an inelastic commodity requires a 500% increase in demand/consumption. Very interesting!

rinthea · 09-22-2008, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itzena

It's a slowing market but overall demand is still higher than it was a decade or so ago plus we're at peak oil, give or take.

peak oil is bullshit and it isnt inelastic
oct contracts expired yesterday, the move was a large part due to this

the USD is toast, it will be 40% lower in 2 years

chu · 09-22-2008, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rinthea

peak oil is bullshit and it isnt inelastic
oct contracts expired yesterday, the move was a large part due to this

the USD is toast, it will be 40% lower in 2 years

peak oil isn't bullshit. There's quite a lot of data supporting it and unless we hit some big oil patches somewhere this is as high as it'll get. One of the articles I read a while back was documenting how oil production in the baltic sea has been declining for the past 10 years as wells get dry.

And most analyst believe that Saudis are at near capacity, no matter what the Arabs tell us.

Gilgamel · 09-23-2008, 12:38 AM

Was discussing this today with a fellow finance major. Basically we came to the conclusion the whole world economy is going to splatter over the next two years and not much can stop it. We're going to spur inflation to ease our debt, which is going to push oil to the brink, which is going to cause a major slowdown worldwide. We're certainly not experts but I don't see how the next 3-5 years are any kind of fun whatsoever.

Dassem · 09-23-2008, 02:58 AM

I find the following a pretty good explanation of various stuff:
The Crash Course
The Crash Course | Chris Martenson

Peak Oil
Crash Course Chapter 17a | Chris Martenson

Concept of Net Energy
Crash Course Chapter 17b | Chris Martenson

09-22-2008, 12:55 PM	#541 (permalink)
Itzena SOS-dan #76564674 Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Near a big fucking castle, the UK Posts: 7,159 -25 Internets	Look at the value of the dollar. Remember what crude is priced in. Plus speculators frantically looking for something even halfway secure. __________________

09-22-2008, 03:50 PM	#549 (permalink)
Itzena SOS-dan #76564674 Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Near a big fucking castle, the UK Posts: 7,159 -25 Internets	It's a slowing market but overall demand is still higher than it was a decade or so ago plus we're at peak oil, give or take. __________________

09-23-2008, 12:38 AM	#554 (permalink)
Gilgamel King Me Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Rocky Top Posts: 2,453 +0 Internets	Was discussing this today with a fellow finance major. Basically we came to the conclusion the whole world economy is going to splatter over the next two years and not much can stop it. We're going to spur inflation to ease our debt, which is going to push oil to the brink, which is going to cause a major slowdown worldwide. We're certainly not experts but I don't see how the next 3-5 years are any kind of fun whatsoever. __________________ Just an earthbound misfit, I

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09-22-2008, 01:10 PM	#545 (permalink)
prescient63 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 1,918 -42 Internets	There's a big short squeeze on today as well. It's basically all three things added up, declining dollar, short squeeze, and some people predicting economic growth.

09-22-2008, 02:27 PM	#546 (permalink)
Schatze Registered User Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 1,618 -3 Internets	Cement multinationals are pretty stagnant right now. They're probably one of the best predictors of economic status. Everything needs concrete.

09-22-2008, 03:24 PM	#547 (permalink)
prescient63 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 1,918 -42 Internets	I think the market gas lost it's mind and that oil shouldn't be above $75-80. Who knows though. In a slowing economy I have a hard time seeing how oil that is up over last year is justifiable.

09-22-2008, 04:47 PM	#551 (permalink)
Eomer You mean I can change this? Neat! Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 12,975 +66 Internets	I wasn't aware that economic theory predicts that for a 500% price increase of an inelastic commodity requires a 500% increase in demand/consumption. Very interesting!

09-23-2008, 02:58 AM	#555 (permalink)
Dassem Registered User Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 77	I find the following a pretty good explanation of various stuff: The Crash Course The Crash Course \| Chris Martenson Peak Oil Crash Course Chapter 17a \| Chris Martenson Concept of Net Energy Crash Course Chapter 17b \| Chris Martenson