Quote:
Originally Posted by I'm Rich Bitch  MSNBC just said the remaining primaries do not matter. Neither one can win even in a sweep. This will come down to backroom deals for the Super Delegates. I can not see them going to Obama over Clinton. Those are old school Democrats who owe Bill a lot of favors and want him back in office. |
I disagree. Two reasons:
First:
Those Democrats remember the 90's too. Yes, it was a relatively peaceful and prosperous time, but it was also the time of Ken Starr and special prosecutors and impeachments. The republican party gave us George "Dubya" Bush in backlash to the first Clinton administration. (I'm not taking sides, that is just what happened.)
Democratic party loyalists, most of whom were around for all that in the 90's, know damn well that the republicans haven't forgotten all that ill-will and fully intend to open up with both guns blazing at even the possibility of another Clinton in the White House. They have been saving shit up for years for this prospect.
Even if Hillary wins, everybody knows it is gonna get really ugly in Washington for a while - not because she wouldn't be a good president or something, but because there is a lot of history there that a hell of a lot of people haven't gotten over yet.
I think the super delegates who have been onboard with Hillary thusfar have been there to try to gain favor with the future administration. Get on board early, earn a couple favors of your own, maybe even get a new job etc etc. They have their preferences and ideas, and I am in no way saying the endorsements were less than sincere, but politicians are, by their very nature, pragmatists.
Which brings me to my second point:
Most of those super delegates are elected officials themselves. Many of which will be up in 2008. And more than being Clinton-Loyalists, they are Democratic-Loyalists.
If Obama has the wind at his back, if he has the enthusiasm and the massive grass-roots following he is gathering that (currently at least) shows no sign of stopping, there will be a lot of practical pragmatic reasons to back Obama for the nod. Not the least of which are the fact that people are more likely to go vote for a President than a Congressman (see turnout for mid-term elections). A lot of folks will vote party-line once they have picked a Pres also - this has the practical effect of if you have a popular presidential candidate, your congressional candidates will get a boost from that presidential turnout vote. If your candidate generates more enthusiasm (and voters) than the other guy in the battleground states where your congressmen are up for election or reelection, you are gonna pick up more seats.
I don't recall the exact numbers of how many senate and house seats they expect to be up for grabs, but Republicans are retiring at the end of this term like crazy. Something like 31 Republican House members are retiring rather than seeking reelection this year. That is a lot. That is a lot to battle for.
If Obama seems as if he can deliver a lot of enthusiastic voters in a lot of states Democrats don't normally play big in, the Party Loyalists will back him simply for the practical purpose of increasing their Senate and House margins to a functional level.
As we have seen, a 50-50 congress is fucking useless.
Also as a 3rd point, I wouldn't underestimate how super delegates see Hillarys high negatives as well. In light of all these primary losses she is currently suffering, that high negative number might be a lot to consider if you are considering sending her into the general as opposed to Obama who doesn't have those kinds of negative numbers atm.