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Originally Posted by RiskyChris  How can Clinton win? Seriously. Obama is up by more than 100 pledged delegates. If Clinton wins the big 3 (TEXASS, Ohio, Transylvania) by a 60/40 margin, she'll only gain roughly 90 delegates on him.
There's almost no way for Obama to not win the popular, pledged delegate count.
If the DNC fucks the public over and goes with Clinton, well, then politics is pretty much dead(redead?) for a lot of America.
Edit: I'll post a spreadsheet later tonight. My girlfriend just nearly broke my nose, so I'm tending to that right now. |
When this whole "This is gonna split all the way to the convention" talk started after Super Tuesday. ALL of those discussions pretty much assumed more-or-less a 50/50 split of the delegates throughout the rest of the race, leaving each campaign within spitting distance of each other.
Not many folks were thinking about 8 (and possibly 10) strait Obama wins by a massive 2 to 1 margin.
There are rumblings from the Clinton Camp that March 4th (Texas/Ohio) is *necessary* to win. You read between the lines on that, and you could come to the conclusion that if Obama wins either of those states, you might turn on the television on March 5th and see Hillary withdraw from the race. Maybe it goes all the way to Pennsylvania - if she does win all 3, yea, it could go on further and it could get funky.....But with Obama's momentum and his inroads on all sorts of Demographics he wasn't expected to do so well with, he could win one or several of those.
If that happens, this could be over in weeks, not go all the way to a brokered convention in August.
We will see, but I think that is a LOT closer to reality tonight than it was a week ago.