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Originally Posted by renaissance  Even best case scenario:
Clinton blowouts (65-35) in Kentucky and West Virginia;
Modest (55-45) Obama victories in Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota;
A split vote in Puerto Rico;
Clinton will still need 193 out of the available 256 Superdelegates available to keep Obama from clinching the nomination with 2,025 delegates. With the trends since February 5th, this is a near impossibility. Obama is a mere 65 Superdelegate endorsements away from the nomination, assuming poll numbers are accurate. If he gets 80 or so before Puerto Rico (he got 7 on Friday alone), Clinton may as well go home and save her money for 2016.
Florida and Michigan will be counted, but no way in hell before the June 3rd contests. The Obama campaign wont let it happen, and rightfully so. They don't want FL and MI deciding the nomination, but they do want the delegates sat. Obama may be so far ahead in delegates at that point, the campaign may simply allow the FL and MI votes to stand as they are (with Obama being assigned the 'undecided' votes in MI). |
That's assuming everything stays static. Clinton's real only hope is that either some monster dirt comes out on Obama or he (or maybe his wife) say something so unbelievably offensive that the superdelegates can't vote for him. It's an unlikely scenario, to say the least, but given how much she's invested in this I guess it makes sense to hold out. That's especially true if she tones down her spending and runs a positive campaign designed to heal some wounds and reunify the party.